Hotforex Uk Office Chair

Licenças e Regulação Análise de Negociação em Directo Taxas Actuais Spreads Legal: HotForex é uma marca registada da HF Markets (Europe) Ltd, uma Empresa de Investimento Cipriota (CIF) sob o número HE 277582. Regulada pela CySEC sob o número de licença 183/12. A HotForex é regida pela Directiva sobre Mercados de Instrumentos Financeiros (MiFID) da União Europeia. O website hfeu é operado pela HF Markets (Europe) Ltd. Aviso de Risco: A negociação de produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores, pois eles trazem um alto grau de risco para seu capital. Certifique-se de que compreende completamente os riscos envolvidos, tendo em conta os seus objectivos de investimento e o nível de experiência, antes da negociação e, se necessário, procure aconselhamento independente. Leia a divulgação completa do risco. A HotForex não aceita clientes dos Estados Unidos, Bélgica, Irã, Sudão, Síria e Coréia do Norte. Copyright 2016 - Todos os Direitos Reservados Aviso de Risco: A negociação de produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores, pois eles possuem um alto grau de risco para o seu capital. Leia a divulgação completa do risco. Aviso de Risco: Lembre-se de Forex e CFDs são produtos alavancados e pode resultar na perda de todo o capital investido. Por favor, considere o nosso risco Divulgação. Forex News 15:41 EUR / USD continua a ser baixa no curto prazo Scotiabank Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Estrategista no Scotiabank, reiterou a perspectiva de baixa para o par no curto prazo. LdquoNão é um monte de momento para comentar sobre o gráfico de curto prazo, mas o preço de ação lá é a anota parece baixa para o EUR rdquo. LdquoWe acho que a recuperação no local a partir da área de baixa 1.05 já correu seu curso após slide yesterdayrsquos fora do alto. Sinais de preços intradiários apóiam a visão de baixa que achamos (gráficos horários mostram pressão de venda pesada em torno da Londres aberta) e procuramos spot para pressionar o suporte intraday em 1.0585 e para estender mais baixo para 1.0510 / 20 abaixo aqui. A resistência intradérmica é 1.0645 / 55rdquo. 15:37 EUR / USD mais fraco, cai para 1.0570 no PIB dos EUA A pressão de venda em torno da moeda comum está agora a acelerar, arrastando EUR / USD para novos mínimos na região 1.0570. O USD / USD mais baixo no PIB dos EUA otimista O Spot perdeu terreno após os números avançados do PIB dos EUA mostrarem que a economia deverá crescer em um 3,2 anualizado durante o período de julho a setembro, superando as estimativas iniciais para uma expansão de 3,0. Resultados extras viram a inflação acompanhada pelas Despesas de Consumo Pessoal esperadas para subir 1,4 durante o mesmo período, enquanto Core PCE é visto em 1,7. À frente da sessão, o USD permanecerá no centro do palco à luz da divulgação da Conferência Boardrsquos Confiança do Consumidor, o SampP Case-Shiller índice e discursos por NY Fed W. Dudley (eleitor permanente, neutro) e J. Powell (eleitor permanente , Neutro). O par está agora abaixo de 0.38 em 1.0574 enfrentando o apoio inicial em 1.0515 (baixa novembro de 2016) seguido por 1.0457 (2015 baixa Mar.16) e então 1.0332 (baixa mensal janeiro 2003). Por outro lado, uma pausa acima de 1.0685 (alta Nov. 28) iria atingir 1.0763 (alta Nov.16) em rota para 1.0826 (alta Nov.14). 15:31 A Conta Corrente do Canadá subiu de -19.86B anterior para -18.3B no 3T 15:30 O Produto Interno Bruto dos Estados Unidos Anualizado chegou a 3.2, acima das expectativas (3) no 3T 15:30 Estados Unidos Preços de Consumo Pessoal Preços (QoQ ) Permanece inalterada em 1,4 no 3T 15:30 Os Estados Unidos Desempenho Pessoal Pessoal (QoQ) entrou em 1,7, abaixo das expectativas (1,8) no 3T 15:30 Índice de Preços no Produto Interno Bruto dos Estados Unidos abaixo das expectativas (1,5) no 3T: ING Carsten Brzeski, Economista-Chefe do ING, observa que a inflação global da Alemanha permaneceu estável em novembro. Com base nos resultados de seis estados regionais, o título alemão chegou a 0,8 YoY Em novembro, inalterada a partir de outubro. Com base na definição europeia harmonizada (IHPC) e mais relevante para a elaboração de políticas do BCE, a inflação global manteve-se inalterada em 0.7 YoY ainda o nível mais elevado desde Outubro de 2014.rdquo ldquoVendo os componentes disponíveis dos estados regionais, Baixos preços de energia foi compensado por aumentos de preços mais baixos em serviços e bens de consumo. Que os dados da inflação deve evitar que o establishment econômico alemão de temer que seus piores pesadelos de acelerar a inflação devido às políticas ultra-livres ECBrsquos se tornará realidade. Mesmo se esperarmos que a inflação geral da Alemanha aumente gradualmente nos próximos meses, para uma economia que está operando no momento do pleno emprego e com um hiato de produto positivo, as taxas de inflação em torno de 1 ainda são extremamente moderadas e definitivamente não sinalizam superaquecimento na economia. Economia alemã. Letrsquos também não se esqueça que a globalização deve continuar a exercer pressão para baixo sobre os salários, enquanto o comércio eletrônico ea economia de compartilhamento são novos impulsionadores, mantendo as pressões inflacionárias low. rdquo ldquoPara o BCE, todayrsquos dados da inflação alemã são boas notícias. Para a reunião da próxima semana, o único problema técnico poderia ser o euro mais fraco que, por sua vez, deveria levar a previsões de inflação um pouco maiores nas projeções do próximo quadrimestre do BCE pelo menos para 2017. Uma revisão em alta das previsões de crescimento e inflação do ECBrsquos tornará mais difícil Para que as pombas monetárias discutam para uma extensão ou mesmo mais QE. Ao mesmo tempo, o aumento da incerteza e o aumento das pressões inflacionárias subjacentes deveriam, a nosso ver, constituir o argumento principal e convincente para que o Presidente do BCE, Draghi, obtenha pelo menos amplo apoio para uma extensão da QE de 3 a 6 meses, combinada com alguns ajustes técnicos Para enfrentar o problema da escassez. Até certo ponto e apenas em privado, o BCE pode não ser extremamente insatisfeito com um lsquonorsquo no referendo italiano, uma vez que daria o argumento incerteza poder mais persuasivo. Não seria a primeira vez que a avaliação econômica do Conselho de Governadores diverge das projeções dos funcionários. 15:24 Brasil Taxa de Desemprego permanece em 11,8 em outubro 15:23 RBNZ: Continuar a pedir uma nova redução de taxa em 2017 Deutsche Bank Research Team no Deutsche Bank, continua a pedir uma nova taxa de RBNZ cortar em 2017, deixando uma taxa de caixa lsquoterminalrsquo este ciclo de 1,5. LdquoWe continuar a esperar que o RBNZ para ter a taxa de caixa menor em 2017, com uma nova flexibilização de 25bp, provavelmente em maio. Certamente, uma maior flexibilização não se reflete nem na precificação do mercado, nem nas próprias projeções do RBC para o OCR, como descrito na Declaração de Política Monetária de novembro. A chamada é baseada em dois fatores. A primeira é a taxa de câmbio. No meio de expressar o desconforto contínuo sobre a força da moeda, o MPS de novembro olha para o índice ponderado pelo comércio a depreciar em 2017, desenrolando muito da apreciação vista até 2016, e isso provavelmente será necessário para mitigar o impulso desinflacionário do setor de transações . Nós somos cautelosos quanto às perspectivas para isso. O que a política de curso nos Estados Unidos e Austrália leva em última análise até 2017 é provável provar apenas como (se não, mais) importante para a evolução do TWI do que fatores domésticos. E enquanto o recente resultado das eleições presidenciais nos Estados Unidos viu nossos economistas norte-americanos revisarem mais alto suas perspectivas de crescimento econômico, a esperada resposta política do Fed no ano que vem permanece bastante muda com apenas duas subidas adicionais (um perfil mais agressivo do Fed emite em 2018 ). Se o Fed demonstrar relutância em caminhar mais agressivamente do que preço, a pressão negativa material sobre a NZ TWI parece improvável se materializar. Da mesma forma, continuamos a ver uma maior flexibilização pela RBA em 2017 em meio à fraqueza da pressão inflacionária doméstica. Além disso, espera-se que a recente recuperação nos preços dos produtos lácteos limite a pressão descendente (embora um risco-chave seja se os preços mais altos dos produtos lácteos são sustentados em última instância) .15h08 USD / JPY inter-mercados: ponto intrínseco à fase de consolidação de curto prazo À frente dos dados do NFP de sexta-feira Depois de um retrocesso menor por duas sessões consecutivas, o par USD / JPY recuperou a tração de alta na terça-feira e agora está voltando para 113,00, revirando todas as suas perdas registradas na sessão anterior. Apesar da incerteza iminente em torno da reunião da OPEP na quarta-feira e do referendo constitucional italiano no domingo, o sentimento de alta dominante em torno do dólar parece estar retrocedendo. A crescente confiança dos investidores em que os gastos fiscais agressivos da administração Trump levariam ao crescimento econômico mais rápido dos EUA e à pressão inflacionária alimentaram as especulações de um ciclo mais rápido de endividamento do Fed em 2017, que continua sustentando o dólar norte - Para o major Olhando para o intrínseco, o par up-move terça-feira foi impulsionado exclusivamente pela dinâmica de preços em dólares e não foi reafirmado por achatamento dos EUA e japonês 10 anos rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro. No entanto, o índice de volatilidade (VIX) manteve-se em níveis deprimidos e é favorável à última etapa do par de up-move. Com a maioria dos intrínsecos não apoiando a par de perna na terça-feira, qualquer notícia adversa / desenvolvimento sobre o acordo de saída da OPEP e (ou) uma ligeira recuperação no VIX iria impulsionar a demanda de refúgio seguro e forçar os investidores a cortar suas apostas de alta. Isso pode levar a um prolongado período de consolidação para o par antes dos dados de empregos mensalmente observados nos EUA (NFP) na sexta-feira, o que ajudaria os investidores a determinar as possibilidades eo momento da próxima ação do Fed, além da reunião de dezembro. Proporcionam um novo ímpeto para o movimento direcional a curto prazo do par. 15:04 EUR / USD caiu sobre CPI alemão, em torno de 1.0580 A moeda única permanece entrincheirada no chão negativo hoje, com EUR / USD agora pairando sobre a área de mínimos diários na faixa 1.0585 / 80. O EUR / USD oferecido pós-dados Spot mantém a nota oferecida inalterada após os números da inflação alemã rastreados pelo IPC mostraram que os preços ao consumidor devem subir em um 0,8 anualizado durante o mês atual e 0,1 em uma base mensal, combinando as previsões. Outros dados viram os preços medidos pelo IHPC mais amplo esperado ganhar 0.7 em um ano a novembro e para vir em plano intermestral, ambos imprime faltando expectativas. O par está estendendo a gota diária após três retracements consecutivos, desvanecendo-se completamente yesterdayrsquos pico aos limites de 1.0700 a figura embora encontrando o apoio semanal na região 1.0560 até agora. Na segunda-feira, o presidente M. Draghi não conseguiu desencadear alguma reacção duradoura no local após o seu testemunho perante o Parlamento Europeu na segunda-feira, ao enfatizar a resiliência da área do euro, particularmente após a votação da Brexit, enquanto argumentava também que o BCE poderia avaliar Condições atuais na reunião de dezembro. Mais tarde, na sessão de NA, os números avançados do PIB do terceiro trimestre são devidos, seguidos pela Confiança do Consumidor rastreada pelo Conference Board, o índice SampP Case-Shiller, os valores de inflação medidos pelo PCE durante o Q3 (Fedrsquos favorito) e os discursos do NY Fed W. Dudley Eleitor permanente, neutro) e J. Powell (eleitor permanente, neutro). O par está agora abaixo de 0.28 em 1.0584 enfrentando o apoio inicial em 1.0515 (baixa novembro de 2016) seguido por 1.0457 (2015 baixa Mar.16) e então 1.0332 (baixa mensal janeiro 2003). Por outro lado, uma pausa acima de 1.0685 (alta Nov. 28) iria atingir 1.0763 (alta Nov.16) em rota para 1.0826 (alta Nov.14). 15:01 Intraday SMA cruz visto em USD / RUB Uma nova perna em USD / RUB reforçou a sua SMA 100 horas para cruzar acima do período de 200 um. Enquanto este intraday Golden Cross não garante a correção recente é feito e espanado, os preços baixos impressos em gráficos horários estão em uma distância convergente para a cruz SMA. Este nível de preço pode ser usado como hotspot técnico por muitos comerciantes USD / RUB. O cenário de risco é definido uma vez que um fim além do 200 SMA é impresso. 15:01 Itália 10-y Bond Auction até 1,97 do anterior 1,6 15:01 Itália 5-y Bond Auction: 0,91 vs 0,57 15:01 Alemanha Índice Harmonizado de Preços ao Consumidor (YoY) abaixo das previsões (0,8) em Novembro: Actual 0.7) 15:01 Alemanha Índice Harmonizado de Preços ao Consumidor (MoM) abaixo das previsões (0.1) em Novembro: Actual (0) 15:01 Alemanha Índice de Preços no Consumidor (MoM) em linha com as previsões (0.1) em Novembro 15:01 Alemanha Consumidor O índice de preços (YoY) encontra-se com previsões (0.8) em novembro 14:51 AUD / USD: Consideravelmente avaliado aproximadamente em torno dos níveis atuais a equipe de pesquisa de Deutsche Bank em Deutsche Bank. Isto sugere que teremos de ver (inter alia) um novo re-pricing das expectativas do Fed para empurrar AUD / USD muito mais baixos e / ou um retorno para uma expectativa de RBA aliviar no mercado local. Dentro do bloco dólar periférico, continuamos a ver os preços relativos dos produtos de base ter uma influência significativa nos cruzamentos. Dada a dificuldade em prever os movimentos relativos dos preços das commodities, estamos atualmente inclinados a esperar que os cruzamentos de bloqueio sejam desalinhados tanto nas taxas como na perspectiva relativa dos preços das commodities antes de expressar fortes idéias comerciais. 14:50 Itália: Retrospectiva política do referendo Goldman Sachs Francesco Garzarelli, Analista de Pesquisa da Goldman Sachs, atualmente coloca as chances de uma vitória lsquoVote Norsquo aos 55 anos no próximo referendo italiano, acima da probabilidade 50 avaliada anteriormente. A chance correspondente que atribuímos a um resultado de lsquoYesrsquo é materialmente maior do que o que as pesquisas de opinião sugerem. A principal razão pela qual nossa probabilidade subjetiva é alta é porque calculamos que, se todos os eleitores indecisos fizerem a sua votação, apenas 60 deles votarão a favor seriam obrigados a balançar o voto para o lado lsquoYesrsquo. Esta não parece ser uma ordem alta (se, ao invés disso, apenas 55 dos indecisos votassem, de acordo com a taxa de participação global prevista, a percentagem necessária de votos para lsquoYesrsquo teria de aumentar para 70 para as reformas passarem) . Também levamos em consideração o fato de que, historicamente, a participação dos jovens foi materialmente menor do que a do eleitorado mais amplo. Se o campo de lsquoVote Norsquo prevalecer (chance subjetiva). O senhor deputado Renzi provavelmente apresentará formalmente a sua demissão ao Presidente da República. A partir daí, vemos pelo menos três principais eventos possíveis: Um governo provisório é nomeado (45): O cenário mais provável, em nossa opinião, é aquele em que Renzi se detém para dectar as conseqüências políticas sobre aqueles que não apoiaram a Governo e preparar-se para as próximas eleições gerais. Nesse caso, o Partido Democrata e as formações políticas centristas apoiariam um governo interino de coalizão liderado por uma força política retirada de suas fileiras (não vemos um tecnocrata sendo nomeado, uma vez que essa escolha provavelmente seria impopular). O novo governo provavelmente teria uma agenda política limitada, consistindo principalmente em: (i) supervisionar a recapitalização do Monte dei Paschi de Siena, parcialmente estatal, e potencialmente outros bancos menores, e (ii) redigir a legislação eleitoral para as duas Câmaras Do Parlamento antes de uma eleição geral na Primavera de 2018. O Sr. Renzi prossegue (35): Se a quota das eleições Votersquo for suficientemente elevada (ou seja, superior a 45, assumindo uma participação de 55, isto equivale a cerca de 12 milhões de votos ), O senhor deputado Renzi poderia alegar que o seu apoio pessoal é superior ao dos seus detratores no centro-esquerda. Isso pode permitir que ele mantenha uma maioria no Parlamento, provavelmente depois de uma reabertura do gabinete. Vemos isso como o resultado mais provável. A agenda de um governo lsquoRenzi-2rsquo não seria materialmente diferente da do governo interino: supervisionar a recapitalização dos bancos e a reescrita das leis eleitorais. As eleições legislativas iniciais (20): As consequências políticas da votação podem ser suficientemente graves para conduzir a eleições antecipadas em 2017. Consideramos este resultado muito improvável, uma vez que o Parlamento ainda precisaria reformular as leis eleitorais e as turbulências materiais do mercado sugeririam que Seria adequado adiar as pesquisas. A votação chegaria na segunda metade do ano, no início. rdquo 14:50 USD / RUB avança para alta perto de 65,30, o petróleo, os dados eyed O dólar está agora a reunir mais impulso ascendente, o envio de USD / RUB para testar tops diariamente fresco Na vizinhança de 65,30. USD / RUB atenção aos dados, óleo Spot manteve pressão extra na terça-feira depois de um aumento na demanda para o dólar dos EUA, enquanto a queda substancial dos preços do petróleo continua a pesar sobre RUB. Na verdade, a fraqueza do RUB se intensificou hoje depois que o barril de petróleo do Brent está derramando mais de 2 para o bairro de 48.00 no momento da redação, uma vez que as esperanças de um possível acordo para limitar a produção de petróleo na reunião da Opep amanhã diminuíram drasticamente. Os pares permanecerão sob a pressão adiante na sessão na luz de liberações chaves na economia de ESTADOS UNIDOS: uma outra revisão de figuras do GDP Q3, CBrsquos Consumer Confidence, SampP Case-Shiller índice, Q3 PCE e discursos por NY Fed W. Dudley (permanent Eleitor, neutro) e J. Powell (eleitor permanente, neutro). Na Rússia, Markitrsquos Manufacturing PMI para o mês de novembro é devido na quinta-feira seguido pela CBRrsquos participações de FX Reservas. Na frente de posicionamento, os longos líquidos especulativos da RUB foram reduzidos ao nível mais baixo desde o início de outubro durante a semana encerrada em 22 de novembro, como mostra o último relatório da CFTC. Os níveis de USD / RUB a observar No momento em que o par está a avançar 0,55 a 65,19, enfrentando a próxima barreira a 65,30 (alta em 18 de Novembro), seguida por 65,87 (200 dias sma) e finalmente 66,48 (alta Nov.14). Por outro lado, uma desagregação de 64,45 (20 dias sma) teria como objectivo 64,16 (100 dias sma) e 63,49 (baixo 22 de novembro). Goldman Sachs O período de blackout para as pesquisas de opinião em torno do referendo começou na última sexta-feira (18 de novembro) e a campanha de rejeição das reformas (rotulada de lsquoVote Norsquo) Ganhou mais terreno nas últimas semanas e, na última contagem disponível, está na liderança por uma porcentagem ligeiramente maior (53 a 47) do que a margem de erro estatístico (-3%), observa Francesco Garzarelli, Analista de Pesquisa da Goldman Sachs. LdquoAn análise das pesquisas de opinião reforça a idéia de que o referendo é menos sobre a proposta de reforma e mais sobre a popularidade do governo. Por exemplo: A correlação entre os respondentes da aflição política e suas intenções de voto permanece fortemente positiva em uma observação que fizemos em nossa nota de setembro. Específicamente, uma grande maioria (perto de 80) de eleitores que tomam partido com o Partido Democrata, que lidera Renzi, declaram-se a favor das reformas apesar de alguma dissidência interna. Enquanto isso, os eleitores perto de Berlusconirsquos Forza Italia ndash que apoiou o projeto de lei de reforma no Parlamento quase ao final de seu processo legislativo ndash parecem ser praticamente dividido no meio. Em contrapartida, as reformas são principalmente apoiantes dos dois maiores grupos de oposição, o Movimento 5 estrelas ea Liga do Norte. A repartição por dimensões geográficas e demográficas indica que a campanha lsquoVote Norsquo tem mais apoio entre os jovens e / ou os residentes nas regiões Nordeste e Sul do país. Ambas as áreas foram atingidas pela crise económica e bancária, permitindo que as formações populistas, anti-imigração e anti-UE para angariar mais apoio. Cerca de um quarto dos entrevistados que pretendem votar (correspondendo a cerca de 6 milhões de pessoas) ainda estão indecisos. Dado que não é necessário quórum para o referendo para passar, o que este grupo faz no dia poderia determinar o resultado. rdquo 14:29 Dreno do dólar Asias é apenas o começo Deutsche Bank A resiliência relativa da Ásia ao USD stress de liquidez nos últimos anos tem Observa a equipe de pesquisa do Deutsche Bank. LdquoMais uma vez que a base cambial se ampliou significativamente nos mercados do G3 desde 2014, a base asiática não seguiu, o que é muito diferente da estreita correlação na liquidez global do USD observada durante o GFC de 2008 e a crise soberana do euro de 2011. Esta divergência pode ser racionalizada pelo fato de que a oferta de USD para a Ásia geralmente manteve-se abundante até agora, mas estas fontes de USD poderiam estar em risco no novo regime pós-eleitoral. Estamos começando a ver sinais de pressão sobre o USD Financiamento em mercados de moeda única, e há uma série de drivers idiossincráticos de moeda local relativa e liquidez USD a ter em conta. Outro fator de risco é o repatriamento potencial dos ganhos corporativos dos EUA se houver uma reforma do código tributário dos EUA. No entanto, se os bancos centrais optarem por recuar quer por conta da adequação das reservas, quer para permitir que as moedas se ajustem por razões de competitividade, a liquidez do USD poderá ter muito mais que aumentar na Ásia. USD / Asia. rdquo 14:27 AUD / USD bullish acima de 0.7550 UOB FX Strategists no UOB Group vê a perspectiva de AUD / USD passando para alta em um fechamento acima de 0,7550 no curto prazo - prazo. LdquoExpectation para AUD para mover mais baixo ontem foi errado como AUD continua a moer maior. O up-move está se aproximando da resistência 0.7510 forte e uma quebra poderia levar a ganhos adicionais. Dito isto, 0.7555 é outra grande resistência e este nível é improvável que seja seriamente threatenedrdquo. LdquoUpward momentum continua a melhorar e AUD está actualmente a aproximar-se da forte resistência 0.7510. Uma quebra deste nível não seria surpreendente, mas o AUD tem de fechar acima de 0.7555 antes de um movimento ascendente sustentado pode ser esperado. As probabilidades de tal movimento parecem ser bastante alta, desde que 0.7430 é intactrdquo. 14:24 BCE está pronto para comprar mais títulos italianos se não ganhar RTRS agência de notícias Thompson / Reuters disse que o Banco Central Europeu poderia lsquotemporarilyrsquo intensificar suas compras de títulos italianos no caso do lsquoNorsquo voto ganha no domingo. Ldquo BCE Relatado Pronto Para lsquoTemporarilyrsquo Aumente as Compras de Bônus Italianas Se Resultados do Referendo Causam Rendimento Spikerdquo. LdquoItaly precisaria pedir formalmente ajuda se precisar de mais longo prazo Supportrdquo. LdquoNo Vote poderia desencadear PM Renzi rsquos Resignationrdquo. 14:24 Itália: os riscos soberanos do referendo Goldman Sachs Francesco Garzarelli, Analista de Pesquisa da Goldman Sachs, compartilha sua visão de que as reformas constitucionais poderiam modernizar a arquitetura do Estado italiano e facilitar uma legislação mais eficaz e responsável. Por outro lado, a sua rejeição preservaria o status quo institucional e, portanto, não deveríamos ser vistos como um trauma, mas como uma oportunidade perdida. No entanto, a votação é vista, tanto na Itália como no exterior, como um Teste da popularidade ainda desfrutada pelo governo moderado, reformista e pró-europeu de PM Renzi. Uma severa derrota na votação prejudicaria a liderança de Renzirsquos, levando potencialmente a um governo interino e, na pior das hipóteses, ao início das eleições gerais. Com o crescimento real da renda em declínio, a dívida pública em níveis históricos e os bancos domésticos precisando aumentar mais Capital, um retrocesso político viria em um momento infeliz, com potenciais repercussões negativas para o risco soberano. Isto é o que o mercado tem sido cada vez mais preços, particularmente como a votação tem balançado em favor de uma vitória lsquoVote Norsquo. 14:24 Não muito crescimento nos preços do petróleo antes de 2018 Fitch Antes da reunião antecipada muito OPEP em Viena, A agência de classificação baseada em ratings, Fitch, apresentou uma análise com uma perspectiva menos otimista sobre as possibilidades de um acordo de saída. Bull Os preços podem ver pouco crescimento antes de 2018 bull Espera oferta e demanda a ser amplamente equilibrada no primeiro semestre de 2017, e mais de um déficit pronunciado de H2 2017 bull Vê incerteza significativa sobre o caminho futuro dos preços bull Mantém 2017 previsões para Brent e WTI preços Inalterado A uma média de 45,00 touro 2018 inalterado em 55 touro Previsões 2019 em 60 touro As previsões não levam em conta qualquer ação da reunião da OPEP No momento da divulgação petróleo estava negociando mais fraco, com o petróleo WTI perder mais de 2,0 e atualmente está pairando em torno de 46,00 / Barril marca. 14:19 A China enfrentará o dilema político em 2017, além da bolha imobiliária Deutsche Bank Research Team no Deutsche Bank, espera que o governo chinês enfrente um dilema político em 2017 e acredita que alcançará a meta de crescimento de 6,5 com forte alívio fiscal. Mas isso requer mais expansão do crédito, o que exacerbaria o risco de bolha imobiliária e intensificaria as saídas de capital. Esperamos que as reservas cambiais caiam para US2.8 trn em 2017 e 2.4 trn em 2018, e USDCNY se desvalorizará para 7.4 até o final de 2017 e 8.1 para o final de 2018 (6.9 e 17.1 do nível atual de 6.92). Vemos os riscos macro aumentando para além de 2017, com 50 chances de que o crescimento caia abaixo de 6 por um ano completo em algum momento entre 2018 e 2020.rdquo ldquoAcho que a bolha imobiliária é a questão macro mais importante na China. As vendas de terras representaram 36 das receitas do governo local até agora neste ano, e os empréstimos hipotecários representaram 43 dos novos empréstimos RMB (63 em julho a outubro). As políticas apertadas neste setor, as vendas da propriedade e da terra deixaram cair em outubro, mas o prêmio do auction da terra permaneceu elevado em algumas cidades. Isso mostra que alguns desenvolvedores continuam a esperar que a inflação dos preços imobiliários acirrada venha. Em termos monetários, o PBoC pode manter as taxas de juros de referência estáveis, mas afrouxar a oferta de crédito em 2017Q2 para mitigar a desaceleração no setor imobiliário. rdquoIdquoInflação IPC provavelmente vai pegar até 2,5 em 2017 de 2,1 em outubro de 2016. Riscos para o nosso crescimento e As perspectivas de inflação em 2017 estão inclinadas para a alta, enquanto os riscos para nossa taxa e as previsões de RMB são equilibradas. Vemos os riscos macro para aumentar para além de 2017. O rácio dívida / PIB está previsto para subir. A bolha imobiliária irá impor mais riscos macro, os aumentos das taxas dos EUA vai restringir ainda mais a sala de políticas para PBoC, ea excessiva liquidez onshore irá provavelmente conduzir a inflação até eventualmente. rdquo 14:14 DXY inter-mercados: escopo de consolidação O US Dollar Index (DXY) ndash que mede o buck contra um cesto de seus rivais principais ndash está postando seu primeiro ganho diário após três pullbacks consecutivos, recuperando o punho de 101.00 e acima depois que os compradores apareceram em torno da área de apoio chave em 100.70 / 60. Apesar de um aumento da taxa pelo Federal Reserve é praticamente fixado o preço nos participantes do mercado na reunião de dezembro, a probabilidade de aperto futuro (e mais rápido) das condições monetárias pelo Fed emerge como o próximo driver significativo para o dólar nos próximos períodos, Todos apoiados pelas perspectivas de uma política fiscal mais frouxa sob a presidência de Trumprsquos. Além disso, os resultados auspiciosos do diário dos EUA como de tarde adicionaram a um cenário de taxas mais elevadas na economia dos EUA nos próximos trimestres, colaborando com a visão de um dólar mais forte. Além disso, os rendimentos dos Estados Unidos mantêm seu desempenho sólido, com o benchmark de 10 anos subindo para a área de 2,30 / 40, visto pela última vez em julho de 2015, reforçando ainda mais o dólar e ampliando o diferencial de spread em comparação com seus pares globais. Adicionando ao acima, os longs especulativos dos EU aumentaram ao nível o mais elevado desde mid-August 2015 (mais de 72K contratos), tendo longs líquidos aos tops de 3 semanas durante a semana terminada em novembro 22 e de acordo com o último relatório de CFTC. Tecnicamente, a zona de suporte inicial está localizada na faixa de 100,70 / 60 à frente da faixa de 99,70 / 85, onde fica o sma de 20 dias e o retraimento de 23,6 Fibo do movimento de 91,88-102,19 para cima. A tendência bullish permanece intacta, entretanto, acima da linha de sustentação fora de 2016 pontos baixos, atualmente ao redor 96.00, que é reforçada ao mesmo tempo pelo sma 200-day em 96.10. Após uma queda inicial para uma baixa de quatro dias perto de meados de 138,00s, o cruzamento GBP / JPY recuperou a tração e construiu em seu impulso de volta acima de 140,00 marca. Atualmente negociando em torno de 140.60 de nível, testando novos picos de sessão, a cruz travou ofertas frescas e testemunhou um movimento ascendente afiado após os lançamentos econômicos BRITÂNICOS - aprovações de hipoteca, crédito de consumidor de BoErsquos, fonte de dinheiro M4 e empréstimos líquidos aos indivíduos, Leituras esperadas. Além disso, e oferecido tom em torno do iene japonês proporcionou um impulso adicional para o par de forte up-move na terça-feira. Enquanto isso, as possibilidades de paradas de curto prazo ser disparado, em uma movimentação sustentada acima de 140,00 marca psicológica, poderia ter contribuído para forte movimento na última hora, ajudando a cruz para apagar a maioria das perdas abruptas de segunda-feira. Com os lançamentos econômicos do Reino Unido fora do caminho, novas notícias / desenvolvimentos relacionados ao acordo de saída da OPEP e os dados macro dos EUA - PIB e índice de confiança do consumidor, levariam o apetite ao risco dos investidores, eventualmente determinariam a demanda de refúgio seguro para o iene japonês e forneceriam mais Impulso para a cruz. Níveis técnicos a serem observados A resistência imediata do upside é vista em 140.84 (ontem de alta) acima do qual a cruz é provável que aponte para 141.74 (25 de novembro de alta) à frente de 142.40 (21 de julho de alta). Em contrapartida, o apoio imediato é agora vinculado a 140,00 identificador, que se quebrado é susceptível de arrastar a cruz inicialmente para 139,50 en-route 139,00-138,90 forte apoio horizontal. 13:50 Calendário econômico dos EUA pega hoje - BBH Research Team na BBH, sugere que o calendário econômico dos EUA pega hoje após ontem notícias de um muito mais forte do que o esperado Dallas pesquisa de fabricação (para 10,2 de -1,5), que foi o mais forte em Mais de dois anos, uma vez que se pensa que o investimento no sector do petróleo atingiu o fundo. LdquoThe EUA relata sua segunda olhada no PIB Q3. Espera-se que assinalar até 3 de 2.9 principalmente na parte de trás de um consumo mais forte. A SampP CoreLogic informará os preços das casas e a medida da Conference Board de confiança de novembro deverá passar de 98,6 em outubro para trás acima de 100. O presidente do Fed, Dudley, fala sobre a economia de Porto Rico no início da sessão norte-americana, enquanto o governador Powell fala cedo Tarde. rdquo ldquo O relatório de ADP, consumo de outubro e figuras de renda, e PMI de Chicago será liberado amanhã, eo Livro Bege será liberado antes da reunião de FOMC de mid-December. rdquo 13:46 Os diferenciais de interesse são o excitador mais importante contra o óleo Para recentes movimentos de dólar Goldman Sachs Research Team na Goldman Sachs, observa que historicamente, o dólar tem sido negativamente correlacionada com os preços do petróleo, o que significa que os preços baixos do petróleo coincidiram com um dólar forte, enquanto os altos preços do petróleo vêm tipicamente quando o dólar tem sido fraco . LdquoOs últimos FX Views argumentam que a importância desta relação empírica é exagerada por duas razões. Em primeiro lugar, muitas das moedas de contrapartida em índices de Dólar largos pertencem aos países exportadores de commodities, de modo que a queda dos preços do petróleo empurrar para baixo seus termos de comércio, o que enfraquece (reforça) suas moedas. A correlação negativa, portanto, existe quase por construção, isto é, é um pouco como olhar para a correlação dos preços do petróleo com os seus recíprocos (exportadores de mercadorias em termos de troca). Em suma, a correlação não é realmente sobre o dólar per se, mas sobre os exportadores de commodities. Segundo, as variações nos preços do petróleo muitas vezes coincidem com outros desenvolvimentos que têm efeitos sobre o dólar, incluindo choques de demanda global ou mudanças na política monetária. A queda dos preços do petróleo durante a crise financeira global, que foi um choque de demanda negativo originado no ndash dos Estados Unidos, movimentou os diferenciais de taxas frente ao dólar ea queda acentuada dos preços do petróleo em 2014, que coincidiu com o BoJ eo BCE, , Diferenciais de taxa de movimento em favor do dólar. Esta é talvez uma das razões pelas quais a correlação do dólar com os preços do petróleo é menos pronunciada nas mudanças do que nos níveis. Conclui que os diferenciais tarifários são o principal motor das recentes movimentações do dólar, seguidos pelos preços do petróleo. We conclude that it is primarily the forces of economic divergence that are driving recent Dollar direction, in line with our forecasts which anticipate more Dollar appreciation (around 7 percent) on these grounds. rdquo ldquoWe continue to forecast a rise in the Dollar versus the majors of around 7 percent on a trade-weighted basis over the next 12 months. rdquo 13:36 Oil: All roads lead towards OPEC today BBH Today, the markets39 are focussing on the oil as investors are finding it difficult to get a read on OPEC, suggests Research Team at BBH. ldquoAlthough a deal may be elusive, as Russia now says it won39t attend the Wednesday meeting in Vienna, Iran and Saudi Arabia do not look that far apart. The latest reports suggest Saudi39s wanted it to freeze output at a little more than 3.7 mln barrels a day, and the Iranians wanted 3.975 mln. A compromise has been suggested at 3.795 mln barrels. Iran and Iraq are also disputing the methodology to determine how the cuts should be distributed. The front-month Brent contract is off 1.5 near 47.50, while the front-month light sweet contract is off a little more at 46.25.rdquo 13:30 Italy: Risks after and beyond referendum Deutsche Bank Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that after Brexit and Trumprsquos victory, the next key political event is Italyrsquos 4 December referendum on the Senate reform. ldquoItalyrsquos government bond and equity markets have underperformed recently. Hence, the impact of a ldquoNordquo outcome may already have partially been reflected in asset valuations. Still, when looking at implied moves from options, the equity market seems to be mostly pricing in limited probability of extreme scenarios. An apparent lack of concern over contagion risk is even more apparent in broader European indices such as E-STOXX 50.rdquo ldquo Short-term downside risk: in our opinion the key factor to monitor is the banking sector. In the case of a ldquoNordquo victory we continue to believe that PM Renzi will resign. If we are correct markets will have to deal with a ldquoNordquo and the risk of a government vacuum. Markets could react negatively, with the risk of particular stress on the Italian banking sector. If a solution is not found swiftly stress could quickly mount above July 2016 levels. rdquo ldquo Medium-term downside risk: under a prolonged muddle-through scenario there is a risk of market complacency as investors dismiss it as Italyrsquos status quo. We see a non-trivial risk that a new, prolonged period of ineffectual governments leads to systemic instability in the medium term. A muddlethorough scenario means a very low likelihood of significant reforms in our view Italyrsquos economy will continue to perform poorly in both absolute and relative terms. We do not see this as a sustainable equilibrium. Hence, over the medium-term there will have to be a convergence to either a pro-reform government or a euro-sceptic government. Our concern is that the longer Italy is stuck in a muddle-through strategy, the higher the support for euro sceptic parties will likely grow. In current polls, Italyrsquos three eurosceptic parties already capture a cumulative 44 of potential votes. rdquo ldquoThere could be room for a material rebound in Italian assets, driven by banksrsquo equity prices, in the case of a ldquoYesrdquo victory. (i) In our opinion market expectations are tilting towards a ldquoNordquo outcome. (ii) The proportion of undecided voters was still very large when the latest opinion polls were conducted before a two-weak black-out period ahead of 4 December. (iii) Italyrsquos equity market has significantly underperformed in 2016. The underperformance the banking sector has recently accelerated. rdquo ldquo Medium-term upside risk: an unlikely systemic solution. We expect no immediate proactive systemic solution for the banking sector even if the Senate reform is approved. We could be too pessimistic. A systemic solution to the banking sector could be a chance of turning the current growth-banks-politics vicious circle into a virtuous one and revitalize the reform process. In the case a proactive systemic solution is implemented we would significantly revise upwards our GDP forecasts. rdquo 13:26 EUR/JPY rebound from 200-DMA gains momentum ahead of German CPI The EUR/JPY cross caught fresh bids on Tuesday and rebounded sharply from the very important 200-day SMA resistance break-point, now turned immediate support. Currently trading at fresh session peak, around 119.40 level, an offered tone around the Japanese Yen is contributing to the strong bid tone surrounding the cross, which otherwise could have failed to gain any traction amid range-bound EUR/USD price action. The prevalent positive sentiment around European equity market is weighing on traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen, and is also supportive of the pair39s up-move on Tuesday. Traders on Tuesday will remain focused on the preliminary German CPI print for the month of November, while the broader risk sentiment would continue to derive Yen39s safe-haven demand and provide further impetus for the EUR/JPY cross. Technical levels to watch From current levels, 119.70-75 area is likely to act as immediate hurdle above which the cross seems all set to surpass 120.00 psychological mark and aim towards 120.94 resistance level (June 23 high). On the flip side, weakness back below 119.00 handle could drag the cross back towards 200-day SMA support near 118.55-50 region, which if broken decisively might extend the corrective slide towards 117.70-60 horizontal support with 118.00 round figure mark acting as intermediate support. 13:25 Japan off to a firm start in Q4 - BBH Research Team at BBH, noticed that Japan reported strong employment and consumption figures, suggest Q4 is also off to a firm start. ldquoAlthough the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.0, the details were encouraging. The job-to-applicant ratio ticked up 1.40, which is a new high since 1991. The number of unemployed slipped below two million for the first time since February 1995.rdquo ldquoSeparately, Japan reported that retail sales jumped 2.5 in October, which lifted the year-over-year rate from -1.9 in September to -0.1. Overall household spending improved from -2.1 in September from a year ago to -0.4 in October. This matches the smallest contraction since April. rdquo 13:17 GBP/USD sticks to the neutral theme UOB FX Strategists at UOB Group noted Cable is expected to hold its rangebound pattern in the near term. ldquoGBP exceeded the 1.2510/15 resistance but the up-move was short-lived. The sharp drop from the high of 1.2532 appears to have scope to extend lower but at this stage, any down-move is expected to find solid support near 1.2360. Resistance is at 1.2440 followed by 1.2480rdquo. ldquoGBP has been trading in a choppy manner over the last several days and at this stage, there is no early indication that the current neutral phase is about to end soon. In other words, we continue to expect a 1.2300/1.2600 range for nowrdquo. 13:11 EUR/SEK off highs, back below 9.7700 The Swedish Krona remains on the defensive vs. its European peer on Tuesday, with EUR/SEK coming back to the mid-9.7600s after clinching tops at 9.7760. EUR/SEK lower after data The cross edged higher after the Swedish GDP showed the economy has expanded at an annualized 2.8 during the third quarter vs. 3.0 expected and coming down from Q2rsquos 3.6 expansion. Inter-quarter, the economy has expanded 0.5, matching initial estimates. Todayrsquos results, albeit lower than expected, confirm the solid health of the Nordic economy and add to yesterdayrsquos auspicious readings from Retail Sales, all against the backdrop of a divided consensus regarding the likeliness of extra easing by the Riksbank at its meeting next month. The cross is retreating for the fourth week in a row so far, coming down after being rejected from the area of multi-year tops near 10.10 (November 9), levels last seen in February 2010. EUR/SEK levels to consider As of writing the cross is gaining 0.06 at 9.7678 and a break above 9.8460 (20-day sma) would expose 9.8906 (low Nov.17) and finally 10.0096 (high Nov.7). On the other hand, the next support lines up at 9.7347 (low Nov.24) ahead of 9.6755 (low Oct.27) and then 9.6318 (100-day sma). 13:11 Oil: All about the base effects - Nomura Research Team at Nomura, calculates energy price impacts on G10 inflation. ldquoMarket inflation expectations have soared following the US elections, with Donald Trump promising to reflate the US economy, pushing nominal yields sharply higher. rdquo ldquoEnergy price base effects are still expected to push headline inflation higher in the coming months, with the negative impact of the 2014-16 energy price collapse (which significantly brought down year-on-year inflation rates) starting to fade, raising the headline inflation rate. This can have positive impacts on consumer inflation expectations, which can feed through into higher inflation. rdquo ldquoWe calculate base effects across the G10 (using the same methodology as before) under three oil-price scenarios: 1) The status quo: Oil prices hover around current levels, with WTI Crude at a constant level of 47.50 p/barrel. 2) Bearish oil scenario: The oil price falls to 40 over the next six months and remains there in the future. This could follow US shale oil re-flooding the oil market, and OPEC supply perhaps increasing in response. 3) Oil bullish scenario: Gradual rise to 60 per barrel by end-2017. OPEC cuts supply, and Trump infrastructure spending drives global commodity demand. rdquo ldquoBase effects peak in North America and Europe in February 2017. They are largest in the US and Canada, but the euro area is not far behind. However, if oil prices remain constant, by November 2017 most of the base effect gains are removed, with the notable exception of Japan, Australia, New Zealand and to some extent the euro area. rdquo 13:03 EUR/GBP flirting with 0.8500 mark ahead of German CPI The EUR/GBP cross stalled two days of recovery momentum from over 2-month low touched last week and has now reversed majority of its recovery gains recorded on Monday. Currently flirting with 0.8500 psychological mark, bid tone surrounding the British Pound, led by upbeat UK economic releases, has been the key factor driving the cross lower on Tuesday. Data released on Tuesday showed Mortgage Approvals rose 67.52K during October, BoErsquos Consumer Credit rose nearly pound1.62 billion during the same period, while M4 Money Supply rose 1.1 on a yearly basis and Net Lending to Individuals rose 4.9 billion, all printing better-than-expected results. Meanwhile, a rangebound price action around the EUR/USD major has also failed to extended any support as investors now look forward to the preliminary release of German CPI print for fresh impetus. The preliminary German consumer inflation, as measured by CPI, is expected to tick higher to 0.9 y-o-y for November as compared to 0.8 recorded in October. Technical levels to watch Immediate downside support is pegged at 0.8470 level below which the cross is likely to drift towards 0.8420 support area (Sept. 12 low) en-route 0.8400 round figure mark. On the upside, 0.8540 now becomes immediate resistance, above which the recovery momentum is likely to get extended towards 0.8590 level before the cross makes an attempt to reclaim 0.8600 handle. 12:59 Eurozone economic sentiment improves, first signs of pipeline inflation - ING Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist at ING, notes that the Eurozonersquos Economic Sentiment Indicator rose slightly in November, still pointing at a strengthening recovery. ldquoDeflationary pressures have now receded and pipeline inflationary pressures are starting to build, though we are still far away from the ECBrsquos inflation target. rdquo ldquoAfter the PMI for the Eurozone and the IFO in Germany, the European Commissionrsquos economic sentiment indicator (ESI) for the Eurozone increased further to 106.5 in November from 106.4 in October. However, this was slightly weaker than expected, as the consensus aimed for 107. Sentiment in industry declined after the surge in October, while services confidence stabilized. Retail trade, construction and the consumer saw a sentiment improvement. rdquo ldquoAmongst the five largest Eurozone economies, the ESI rose in France (1.5), Spain (0.8) and the Netherlands (0.2), while Germany (-0.7) and Italy (-0.8) experienced a fall in confidence. rdquo ldquoProduction expectations rose again in industry, though order books eased slightly. According to the bi-annual investment survey, real investment growth, which is estimated to have been 1 in 2016, should accelerate to 2 in 2017. A still cautious, but positive outlook. The services sector expects demand to expand faster over the next three months, a sentiment which is shared by both the retail sector and construction (stronger order books). Apart from retail trade, all sector expect employment to increase further in the coming months, a clear support for consumption. So the recovery looks unlikely to falter anytime soon. rdquo ldquoSelling price expectations went up further in industry, rising to the highest level since 2012, now above the historical average. They also went up in services and retail trade, while they eased somewhat in construction. Consumer inflation expectations increased markedly. This suggests that pipeline inflationary pressures start to build, though we are still far away from the ECBrsquos close but below the 2 target. rdquo ldquoIn that regard there is no reason yet for the ECB to become less accommodative. On top of that both Mario Draghi and Vitor Constancio stated recently that the Eurozone economy still pretty much relies on monetary stimulus. In that regard we are still looking at an initial 3 to 6 months lengthening of the QE program at the current pace. Tapering will be at the earliest announced in June 2017. But the fact that inflation is now on the rise, is not something that will calm bond markets in the coming months. rdquo 12:57 German CPI Preview: What to Expect of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair is seen struggling to take on the recovery from near hourly 100-SMA above 1.0600 levels, as resurgence of broad based USD buying keeps a lid on the prices. Attention now turns towards the German CPI report due ahead of the US open for fresh incentives on the EUR. Softer regional y/y CPI readings point to a downbeat nationwide print The German inflation data is up for release later this session, with the CPI figures expected to tick lower to 0.1 in Nov, versus 0.2 growth seen a month ago, while adding 0.8 annually, compared to the 0.7 result reported in Oct. Germany39s regional CPIs released earlier today painted a bleak picture of the harmonized German CPI report, with Brandenburg inflation for the month of Nov MoM coming in at 0.1 vs 0.2 prev, while the YoY was 1.0 vs 0.9 prev. In Hesse, MoM came in at 0.0 versus 0.3 prev, while YoY remained unchanged at 0.8, as prev. Meanwhile, in Bavaria, the MoM came in at 0.0 vs 0.2 prev, with YoY at 0.8 as expected. However, the German CPI report is expected to have limited reaction on the EUR/USD pair, as the main risk event for today remains the US GDP data, while Fedspeaks will also remain in the spotlight. EUR/USD Technical Levels At 1.0597, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0621 (daily pivot). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0685 (weekly high) and from there to 1.0700 (round figure). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0561 (Nov 28 low) below which 1.0535 (Nov 25 low) and 1.0515 (multi-month low) could be tested. 12:54 US: Q3 GDP to be revised higher - TDS Research Team at TDS, expects US Q3 GDP to be revised higher from the initial print of 2.9. ldquoTD is slightly above the market and looks for an annualized growth rate of 3.1 q/q (consensus: 3.0) on account of upward revisions to consumer spending, business investment and international trade. rdquo ldquoConsumer confidence for November will follow later in the morning and is expected to rebound following a sharp decline last month. While markets expect a partial correction to 101.5, TD looks a more robust rebound to 103.0 mirroring the outperformance in the University of Michigan survey and buoyant market sentiment following the election. rdquo ldquoLooking to the Fed, we are scheduled to hear from both Dudley and Powell tomorrow, though Dudleyrsquos comments will focus on the Puerto Rico economy. Powell will be delivering an economic outlook to the Economic Club of Indiana at 12:40, which will be followed by an audience and media QampA. rdquo 12:49 CNY: China extends efforts to dampen capital outflows - MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the main movers during the Asian trading session have been the Chinese renminbi and South African rand as the renminbi has strengthened supported by reports that the Chinese government is poised to impose tighter restrictions on outbound foreign investment in an attempt to dampen capital outflows. ldquoAccording to sources who have seen a draft document outlining new rules, the State Council will ban outbound investment deals worth more than USD10 billion or mergers amp acquisitions above USD1 billion if they are outside the Chinese investors core business. State-owned enterprises will also not be allowed to invest more than USD1 billion in foreign real estate. The report highlights that non-financial outbound investment by Chinese companies has totalled USD146 billion through the first ten months of 2016 already exceeding the record high of USD121 billon recorded in the whole of 2015.rdquo ldquoThe election of President Trump has increased downside risks for the renminbi by encouraging further capital outflows from China. The renminbi has been held relatively stable against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners since the US election while weakness has accelerated against the US dollar lifting USD/CNY closer towards the 7.0000-level for the first time since May 2008.rdquo ldquoIt has also been reported overnight that the Chinese government is stepping up efforts alongside the PBoC to tighten mortgage lending in areas where house prices are deemed as overheating. Personal home mortgages have increased robustly by 35 in the year to the end of September. rdquo 12:44 Indonesian OilMin: Govt hasn t decided whether to cut production with OPEC Indonesian oil minister was on the wires now, via Dow Jones (DJ) newswire, noting that the Indonesian government hasnrsquot decided to join in OPECrsquos effort to cut production level. I have no expectations for OPEC meeting 39Mixed feelings39 about Wednesdayrsquos OPEC meeting Government hasn39t decided whether to cut production with OPEC 12:40 EUR/USD still neutral, within 1.0550/1.0750 range UOB EUR/USD is poised to keep the broad consolidative theme between 1.0550 and 1.0750 in the next 1-3 weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. ldquoAgainst our expectation, EUR surged to reach 1.0684, the highest level in more than a week. The subsequent choppy swings have resulted in a mixed outlook and further choppy consolidation seems likely from hererdquo. ldquoWe just turned neutral on EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase, likely within a 1.0550/1.0750 rangerdquo. 12:33 AUD/JPY tests Mondays high, and then retreats The cross in the AUD/JPY is seen receding gains, although remains strongly bid amid a sharply USD/JPY rally witnessed during the European session. AUD/JPY deflates from 84.25 The AUD/JPY pair now rises 025 to 83.95, although hovers within close proximity to 84 handle, as the bulls remain in command amid a major turnaround in risk conditions, as reflected by a -1.60 drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a fear gauge, which suggests risk-on trades are back in vogue. Hence, the yen remains broadly sold-off into a renewed risk-on wave. However, further upside remains capped on the back of ongoing weakness seen behind AUD/USD, which is mainly attributed to heavy selling seen across the commoditiesrsquo space, particularly copper and oil prices. Focus now remains on the US GDP release due later in the NA session, ahead of the Australian building consents and private capex data due later in the week ahead. Higher side: 84.25/30 (daily high/ Nov 28 high), 84.92 (daily R2) Lower side: 83.61 (daily low), 83.15 (daily S1) 12:25 US Dollar sidelined around 101.30, US data eyed The greenback ndash gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY) ndash is trading almost unchanged on Tuesday around the 101.30 region ahead of the upcoming US docket. US Dollar focus on data The index has managed to revert yesterdays pullback after buyers turned up at the significant support zone in the 100.70/60 band and prompted USD to retake the 101.00 handle and climb as high as 101.60, just to surrender some pips afterwards. The underlying bullish bias around the buck remains unchanged for the time being, sustained by the potential move by the Federal Reserve by year-end (practically priced in by markets) and expectations of higher inflation derived from looser fiscal policy under the Trumprsquos administration. Quite interesting day in the US data space today, as advanced Q3 GDP figures are due, seconded by Consumer Confidence tracked by the Conference Board, the SampP Case-Shiller index, PCE during Q3 and speeches by NY Fed W. Dudley (permanent voter, neutral) and J. Powell (permanent voter, neutral). Additionally, USD longs have climbed to the highest level since the summer 2015 above 72K contracts, while net longs have increased to 3-week tops during the week ended on November 22 and according to the latest CFTC report. US Dollar relevant levels The index is down 0.01 at 101.32 and a breakdown of 100.64 (low Nov.25) would open the door to 99.38 (low Nov.14) and finally 99.84 (20-day sma). On the other hand, the next hurdle lines up at 102.19 (monthly high Apr.2003) ahead of 102.68 (monthly high March 2003). 12:07 Greece Gross Domestic Product n. s.a (YoY) came in at 1.8, above expectations (1.4) in 3Q 12:01 Brazil Inflation Index/IGP-M fell from previous 0.16 to -0.03 in November 12:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence in line with expectations (-6.1) in November 12:00 European Monetary Union Services Sentiment registered at 12.1, below expectations (12.5) in November 12:00 European Monetary Union Industrial Confidence below expectations (-0.5) in November: Actual (-1.1) 12:00 European Monetary Union Economic Sentiment Indicator registered at 106.5, below expectations (107) in November 12:00 European Monetary Union Business Climate below forecasts (0.57) in November: Actual (0.42) 11:57 EUR/USD off-lows, reverts to 1.0600 ahead of German CPI A renewed selling-wave seen behind the EUR/USD pair appears to have lost pace just below hourly 100-SMA at 1.0585, with the bulls now lifting the major back to 1.06 handle. A busy economic calendar ahead Currently, EUR/USD trades -0.13 lower at 1.0600, retreating from session lows reached at 1.0582 some minutes ago. The main currency pair moved-off lows and climbed back to 1.06 handle, as the renewed uptick in the US dollar versus its main competitors faded, as cautiousness sets in heading into a busy economic calendar ahead. The common currency now eagerly awaits the German prelim CPI data due later this session, with markets expecting the German inflation to come in a tad softer than the previous reading of 0.2. While in the NA session, the US Q3 prelim GDP report, consumer confidence numbers and Fedspeaks will hog the limelight. Fed officials Powell and Dudley are scheduled to speak on US economic growth at separate events later on Tuesday. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0621 (daily pivot). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0685 (weekly high) and from there to 1.0700 (round figure) On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0561 (Nov 28 low) below which 1.0535 (Nov 25 low) and 1.0515 (multi-month low) could be tested. 11:57 AUD/USD offered below 0.7524/82 Commerzbank In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the Aussie dollar remains offered while below the 0.7524/82 band vs. the greenback. ldquo AUD/USD rsquos recovery off its November low at .7312, made close to the June 24 low at .7310, has halted at the 38.2 retracement at .7490 and we look for the 200- and 55-day moving averages at .7524/82 to cap. While capped here, AUD/USD remains offeredrdquo. ldquoSupport below the .7312/10 area comes in between the mid-June low and 78.6 Fibonacci retracement at .7287/81. Further down lurks the May low at .7146. We view AUD/USD as having topped and eventually expect it to slide back to the .6828 January lowrdquo. 11:51 GBP/USD clinches highs near 1.2460 post-data GBP/USD has leapt to the area of session highs near 1.2460 following the UK releases today. GBP/USD bid after data The pair has rapidly climbed to the mid-1.2400s after upbeat results from the UK docket showed Mortgage Approvals rose 67.52K during October, BoErsquos Consumer Credit rose nearly pound1.62 billion during the same period, M4 Money Supply rose 1.1 on a yearly basis and Net Lending to Individuals rose 4.9 billion, all prints have come in above expectations Spot has thus extended the rebound from recent lows in sub-1.2400 levels despite the generalized lack of direction in the global markets and the recovery of the US dollar. Later in the NA session, the pair will remain under scrutiny in light of the release of US advanced Q3 GDP, Consumer Confidence tracked by the Conference Board, the SampP Case-Shiller index, PCE during Q3 and speeches by NY Fed W. Dudley (permanent voter, neutral) and J. Powell (permanent voter, neutral). On the positioning side, GBP speculative net shorts have dropped to the lowest level since mid-September, while Open Interest stayed at 4-week lows during the week ended on November 22 according to the latest CFTC report, reflecting the better tone seen in GBP in past weeks. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is advancing 0.27 at 1.2449 and a breakout of 1.2526 (55-day sma) would expose 1.2533 (high Nov.28) and then 1.2675 (high Nov.11). On the other hand, the next support is located at 1.2308 (low Nov.21) followed by 1.2297 (low Nov.18) and finally 1.2081 (low Oct.25). 11:41 European stocks ex-London advance ahead of US GDP The stocks on the European bourses opened on a weaker footing, tracking the overnight Wall Street retreat. However, the indices quickly regained ground and turned positive as risk sentiment improved amid renewed optimism that the proposed OPEC output cut deal will be reached at the OPEC meeting tomorrow, after the GCC said that OPEC members are working together to reach the Algiers accord. Moreover, markets appear to have moved past worries over the Italian referendum and its implications on the banking sector, as latest dovish comments from the ECH president Draghi continue to cheer investorsrsquo sentiment. ECB Draghi said in his speech yesterday that the bank ldquowill assess the various options that would allow the governing council to preserve the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation necessaryquot to raise inflation toward the bank39s goal of just under 2. Meanwhile, Germany39s DAX 30 index rises 0.32 to 10,615 levels, while the UK39s FTSE 100 index drops -0.31 to 6,778. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index jumps 0.84 to 4,550 while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index advances 0.74 to now trade around 3,040 points. All eyes now remain on the US GDP numbers for fresh cues on the broader market sentiment. 11:41 Portugal Consumer Confidence: -10.5 (November) vs -11.6 11:40 Portugal Business Confidence dipped from previous 1.3to 1.2 in November 11:17 Austria Purchasing Manager Index up to 55.4 in November from previous 53.9 11:16 GCC: OPEC is working in coordination to reach a fair deal in line with Algiers accord Headlines crossed the wires last hour from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), citing that OPEC members are continuing their extraordinary efforts to coordinate for a fair and inclusive resolution in line with Algeria proposal, Livesquawk reports. 11:15 UK government faces another legal challenge over Brexit - MUFG The BBC reported yesterday that the UK government is facing another legal challenge over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU, notes Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG. ldquoAccording the report, the government could be challenged over whether withdrawing from the EU automatically results in the UK leaving the European Economic Area (EEA) as well. All EU members are in the European Economic Area and it had been assumed that when the UK leaves the EU it would leave the EEA as well. However, some lawyers are arguing that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if the UK formally withdraws by triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement. rdquo ldquoThe report adds additional uncertainty to the Brexit process and follows the successful legal challenge over whether the UK government can trigger Article 50 on its own without parliamentary consent. The pound has strengthened since the successful legal challenge as hard Brexit concerns have eased, although it remains unclear what exact from of Brexit the UK government will trying to secure. According to a leaked memo from a Conservative official, the UK might try to obtain a ldquoCanada plusrdquo deal although it has been downplayed by a government spokesperson. rdquo 11:13 BoC: Governor Polozs remarks struck an upbeat tone - TDS Research Team at TDS, notes that the BoC Gov Polozrsquos remarks in Toronto struck an upbeat tone, highlighting that the services sector points to a full economic recovery. ldquoWhile the BoC has said that the adjustment has been more gradual than the Bank would have liked, excess capacity is expected to be absorbed around mid-2018 and inflation will converge on 2. On balance hard to say his comments provide a ringing endorsement for additional stimulus. While Gov Poloz declined to speculate on the impact of US policy on BoC deliberations during a Bloomberg interview yesterday, he did say in QampA that there has been very little additional information regarding uncertainties that were mentioned in Oct, suggesting no pressing need to act, despite the Bank having considered cutting rates in Oct. rdquo 11:10 Oil: Saudi Arabia playing hard ball ahead of OPEC meeting MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, suggests that the main event for oil related currencies this week is tomorrowrsquos OPEC meeting. ldquoAccording to reports, Saudi Arabia is attempting to pressure Iran and Iraq into accepting a larger share of output cuts. Saudi Arabia has reportedly offered to cut 4.5 from its production levels of about 10.5 million barrels/day in October. But in return Iran must freeze production at about 3.8 million barrels/day while all members must accept the use of third party production figures published by OPEC On top of that there must also be participation from producers outside the group. rdquo ldquoSaudi Arabiarsquos energy minister attempted to provide an upbeat outlook for the oil market stating that it will reach balance in 2017 even if there is no intervention by OPEC sending a message to other members that it is prepared to walk away from a deal. We are less sanguine and believe that a failure to reach an agreement to cut production will result in the price of oil and related currencies weakening materially heading into next year. The risk of lower prices for longer should increase pressure on OPEC members to ultimately reach an agreement to cut production. rdquo 11:08 GBP/USD jumps to fresh daily highs near 1.2430, US GDP eyed The bulls appear to have found support from a slight improvement in risk conditions, prompting fresh buying in the GBP/USD pair above 1.24 handle. GBP/USD recovers to test 10-DMA at 1.2427 The GBP/USD pair caught a fresh bid-wave last minutes, as the risk currency GBP received fresh impetus from a minor turnaround in risk sentiment amid stalled selling in oil prices and positive US treasury yields. Moreover, the cable also found support from ongoing weakness seen in EUR/GBP cross, as the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, following yesterdayrsquos dovish comments from ECB Chief Draghi. Next of note for the major remains the UK net lending to individuals data, while the much-awaited US GDP report will be published in the US session, with limited reaction expected on the release. GBP/USD Levels to consider In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are lined up at 1.2445/49 (5 amp 20-DMA), 1.2504 (daily R1) and 1.2533 (Nov 28 high). While supports are seen at 1.2381 (50-DMA/ previous low) and 1.2357 (Nov 23 low) and below that at 1.2308 (Nov 21 low). 11:07 NZD/USD making a fresh attempt to reclaim 0.7100 handle The NZD/USD pair maintained strong bid tone for the third straight session and was seen building on to the ongoing recovery momentum from its worst levels in nearly 4-months. Currently trading around 0.7090-85 region, the pair on Monday moved back above the very important 200-day SMA and subsequently tested 0.7100 handle. On Tuesday, the pair was seen attempting a fresh move towards conquering 0.7100 handle amid broad based US Dollar consolidation phase near last week39s multi-year highs. Traders now look forward to today39s US economic docket featuring the release of revised US Q3 GDP growth and consumer confidence for short-term trading opportunities. Also in focus would also be speeches from couple of FOMC members - William Dudley and Jerome Powell, which would looked upon for clues over the Fed39s near-term monetary policy outlook, beyond December meeting, and might infuse additional volatility during NY trading session. On Wednesday, RBNZ39s Financial Stability Report and RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler39s speech would be in focus during early Asian session. However, this week39s monthly jobs report from the US ( NFP ) remains the key event risk and could be the next big fundamental trigger determining the pair39s trajectory in the near-term. Technical levels to watch Sustained move above 0.7100 handle now seems to boost the pair immediately towards 0.7120 en-route 0.7140 strong horizontal resistance. On the flip side weakness below 0.7060 area might now drag the pair back towards 200-day SMA support near 0.7035 region below which the pair is likely to turn vulnerable to break through 0.70 psychological mark and aim towards retesting recent multi-month lows support near 0.6970 area. 11:01 Turkey Foreign Arrivals climbed from previous -32.84 to -25.8 in October 10:51 Oil under pressure as Russia denies participation in OPEC meeting After a temporary rebound witnessed a day before, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell back in the red zone as sentiment remains weighed down by latest OPEC meeting related news flow. Oil eyes weekly supply reports, OPEC meeting - key Currently, both crude benchmarks edge lower, with Brent down -0.67 to trade just below 49 mark while WTI drops -0.55 to 46.80 levels. Oil prices resume its last weekrsquos decline after OPEC experts said late-Monday that an agreement on the details of the oil output deal was not reached. Moreover, the latest comments from the Russian oil minister also added to downbeat momentum around oil prices. Russiarsquos oil minister Novak noted that Russia has no plan to meet OPEC in Vienna tomorrow. In the day ahead, the oil markets will keep a close eye on the developments surrounding the OPEC meeting, as focus turns to the US GDP data and API private sector crude inventory report due later in the NA session today. 10:49 AUD, CAD, CLP vigilant on USD Danske Bank In view of Jakob Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, the commodity-related currencies should keep the attention on the greenback. ldquoCommodity currencies AUD . CAD and CLP . which are positively correlated with base metal prices, have kept track with USD in recent days, where the rally in base metal prices has picked up steam again, e. g. the price on LME copper is trading at the highest level since mid-2015rdquo. ldquoOverall, the rally in the broad dollar has taken a breather over the past couple of days but we look for it to extend further near termrdquo. 10:42 EUR/USD unchanged around 1.0600 ahead of German CPI The single currency is alternating gains with losses vs. its American peer on Tuesday, taking EUR/USD to a narrow range around the 1.0600 handle. EUR/USD focus on data The pairrsquos upside momentum seems to have eased a tad after a promising start of the week on Monday, fading the spike to levels just shy of the 1.0700 barrier on Monday while briefly testing lows near 1.0560 towards the end of the session. USD has recovered some ground after yesterdayrsquos drop, finding solid support in the 100.70/60 band when tracked by the US Dollar Index. Recall that DXY has posted fresh 13-year tops just above 102.00 the figure last week, and has been trading erratically since. Furthermore, President M. Draghi failed to ignite some durable reaction in spot following his testimony before the European Parliament on Monday, as he emphasized the resilience of the euro area particularly after the Brexit vote, while he argued as well that the ECB could assess its current conditions at the December meeting. Looking ahead, preliminary inflation figures in Germany for the month of November will take centre stage ahead of the US docket: advanced Q3 GDP, Consumer Confidence tracked by the Conference Board, the SampP Case-Shiller index, PCE during Q3 and speeches by NY Fed W. Dudley (permanent voter, neutral) and J. Powell (permanent voter, neutral). EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now down 0.05 at 1.0609 facing the initial support at 1.0515 (2016 low Nov.24) followed by 1.0457 (2015 low Mar.16) and then 1.0332 (monthly low January 2003). On the other hand, a break above 1.0685 (high Nov.28) would target 1.0763 (high Nov.16) en route to 1.0826 (high Nov.14). 10:29 Gold struggling to extend Mondays recovery move, awaits US data for further direction Gold struggled to build on Monday39s tepid rebound, from the lowest level since February touched on Friday, and was confined in a narrow trading band around 1190 region. Renewed greenback strength, as depicted by the overall US Dollar Index . was seen weighing on dollar-denominated commodities and hindering further recovery for the precious metal. However, the prevalent cautious sentiment around equity markets has been supportive of the metal39s safe-haven appeal, eventually leading to a range-bound price action on Tuesday. Going forward, today39s US economic docket featuring the revised Q3 GDP growth and consumer confidence index might provide some impetus during NA session. Meanwhile, speeches from couple of FOMC members - William Dudley and Jerome Powell, might now provide fresh insights over the Fed39s monetary policy outlook, beyond December meeting, and help investors to determine near-term trajectory for the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors this week will also confront the release of US monthly employment details, NFP, which is traditionally known for infusing volatility in global financial markets and would also be one of the key determinants for the metal39s near-term directional move. Technical levels to watch From current levels, immediate support is seen at 1185 below which the metal is likely to aim back towards recent multi-month lows support near 1171-70 region with some intermediate support near 1180 level. On the upside, momentum above 1195 immediate resistance now seems to assist the commodity to reclaim 1200 mark and head towards testing its next major hurdle near 1209-10 region. 10:29 GBP/USD upside appears limited Commerzbank In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, further gains in Cable appears somewhat limited for the time being. ldquo GBP/USD has rallied towards and appears to be faltering already ahead of 55 day ma at 1.2539 and the November 4 high at 1.2556. Further up sits the November high at 1.2674 and we believe that upside scope is in fact quite limitedrdquo. ldquoA drop below the 1.2304 level would put the 1.2090/85 October 11 and 25 lows on the maprdquo. ldquoFailure at 1.2085 would mean a continuation of the descent and should trigger losses to the October low at 1.1938 (according to CQG). Below it lies the May 1985 low at 1.1855. We regard the recent peak at 1.2674 as the end of the corrective phase and look for further lossesrdquo. 10:24 USD/JPY faces some consolidation near term UOB FX Strategists at UOB Group expect USD/JPY to initiate a consolidation phase following recent highs below the 114.00 handle. ldquoThe sudden and sharp drop in USD yesterday took out the key support near 111.45 and indicates that the bullish phase that started earlier this month has endedrdquo. ldquoThe high of 113.89 seen last Friday is viewed a short-term top and the current movement is likely the early stages of a correction/consolidation phaserdquo. ldquoThe downside appears to be more vulnerable at this stage but any decline is expected to find solid support near 110.80, 110.25. The high of 113.10 seen yesterday is acting as a very strong resistance followed by 113.89rdquo. 10:15 France Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.1 (3Q) 10:15 Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) up to 4.918M in 3Q from previous 4.903M 10:05 EUR/USD seen at 1.04 in the short-term Danske Bank Jakob Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, believes the pair could drop to the 1.04 area within a 3-month view. ldquo EUR/USD dipped below 1.06 again yesterdayrdquo. ldquoThe calendar this week is highlighted by (1) the release of Novemberrsquos US jobs report on Friday, which is likely to cement a Federal Reserve December rate hike and (2) the Italian constitutional referendum on Friday, which could be a lsquoNorsquo and lead to higher political uncertainty in Italyrdquo. ldquoThis cocktail does not bode well for EUR/USD, which we still see falling to 1.04 on 3Mrdquo. 10:01 Hungary Unemployment Rate (3M) declined to 4.7 in October from previous 4.9 10:00 Denmark Industrial Outlook remains unchanged at -8 in November 10:00 Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) remains unchanged at 0.4 in 3Q 10:00 Spain HICP (YoY) in line with expectations (0.5) in November 09:59 EUR/USD favours further pullbacks Commerzbank Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, expects the pair to slip back to lower levels. ldquo EUR/USD held the November 2015 low at 1.0523 on a closing basis and is seeing a small corrective rebound, which has already faltered ahead of the 23.6 retracement at 1.0700/02. The 38.2 retracement lies at 1.0816 and is likely to cap the market. We then favour a slide lower. Below 1.0523/18 lies the March 2015 low at 1.0457 lies parityrdquo. ldquoAdding to the weight of resistance - the March low can be seen at 1.0821 and the October low at 1.085, our negative bias remains entrenched below hererdquo. 09:59 USD/CHF clings to strong gains above 1.0100 level, US GDP in focus After seesawing between early losses and tepid recovery gains in the previous session, the USD/CHF pair caught fresh bids on Tuesday and is now holding comfortably above 1.0100 handle. Currently trading at session peak level of 1.0140, the pair on Monday regained traction and recovered early lost ground after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) upgraded US economic growth projection for 2017 and 2018. The pair extended overnight momentum amid resurgent greenback strength, as measured by the overall US Dollar Index. Later during NA session, the first revision of US GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2016, followed by Consumer Confidence index, will be looked upon to grab short-term trading opportunities. Meanwhile, the broader sentiment would continue to be driven by any fresh development / news surrounding OPEC output deal ahead of the official meeting on Wednesday and Friday39s monthly jobs report from the US, popularly known as NFP . This week39s US macro data will help investors determine the pace and timing of next Fed rate-hike action in 2017. With December Fed rate-hike decision fully priced-in, upbeat US economic data would increase possibilities of a faster Fed rate-tightening cycle and should trigger a fresh leg of up-move for the major. Technical levels to watch Immediate upside resistance is pegged near 1.0168 (yesterday39s high), which if cleared decisively now seems to assist the pair to surpass 1.0200 handle and aim towards testing yearly highs resistance near 1.0250-55 region. On the downside, 1.0110-1.0100 region is likely to protect immediate downside below which the pair is likely to accelerate the slide towards 1.0080 support area en-route 1.0015-10 strong support. 09:56 UK: Focus on manufacturing and construction PMIs this week RBC CM Elsa Lignos, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that UKrsquos Nov manufacturing and construction PMIs are out Thu/Fri, but the more significant services number comes next Monday. ldquoThe October PMIs pointed to GDP growth of 0.4 q/q on the basis of those outturns being carried through the quarter. So wersquoll be watching in case these latest numbers shift expectations materially away from that initial benchmark. The latest semi-annual assessment of financial stability is also due. The government is granting the FPC statutory lsquopowers of directionrsquo to enforce limits on mortgage lending in the buy-to-let sector, so there is likely to be attention on the Committeersquos response at this point, although the FPC wonrsquot be in a position use these new macro-prudential tools until Q1 2017 (given the parliamentary process for approval). The results of the 2016 bank stress tests will also be published. rdquo 09:53 USD/CAD keeps highs near 1.3430 ahead of OPEC, data The greenback is trading on a firm fashion on Tuesday, lifting USD/CAD back above the 1.3400 handle and testing highs in the 1.3430 region for the time being USD/CAD attention to oil, US data The pair is recovering part of yesterdayrsquos deep retracement to sub-1.3400 levels following a better tone surrounding the buck and a renewed offered bias in crude oil prices. In fact, the West Texas Intermediate is down around 1, breaking below the 47.00 mark and hovering over the mid-46.00 at the time of writing, while traders remain vigilant on the developments around the OPEC meeting in Vienna on Wednesday. In the meantime, the underlying bullish sentiment in USD remains intact as we get closer to the Fed meeting in December, where global markets have already priced in a rate hike. Later in the session, Canadian Current Account during Q3 is due along with US advanced Q3 GDP, CBrsquos Consumer Confidence, the SampP Case-Shiller index, PCE during Q3 and speeches by NY Fed W. Dudley (permanent voter, neutral) and J. Powell (permanent voter, neutral). Following the latest CFTC report, CAD speculative net shorts have decreased to 3-week lows during the week ended on November 22. USD/CAD significant levels As of writing the pair is gaining 0.14 at 1.3428 and a break above 1.3566 (high Nov.18) would aim for 1.3575 (50 Fibo of the 2016 drop) and finally 1.3590 (high Nov.14). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.3374 (low Nov.22) ahead of 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo of the 2016 drop) and finally 1.3260 (low Nov.9). 09:53 Leveraged funds turn net short JPY Nomura Research Team at Nomura, lists down the leveraged fundsrsquo / asset managersrsquo balance breakdown according to IMM data for the week ended November 22. ldquoJPY: Leveraged funds turned net short JPY (12 vs. 7 net long last week) for the first time since January. The highest level of net shorts in the last year was at a level of 71, which was last seen in December 2015. Asset managersrsquo net short positioning rose on the week to 16 vs. 6 last week. rdquo ldquoAUD: Leveraged fundsrsquo net long positions in AUD fell (to 27 vs. 54 last week). The highest level of net long positioning in the past year stands at 67, which was last seen in April. Asset managersrsquo positioning turned marginally net short for the first time since February. rdquo ldquoCAD: Leveraged fundsrsquo net short positioning in CAD rose for the fourth consecutive week (to 61 vs. 52 last week). The highest level of net short positioning in CAD in the last year stands at 80, which was last seen in February. Similarly, Asset managerrsquos net long positioning in CAD fell on the week to 39 vs. 41 last week. rdquo ldquoGBP: Net short positioning by leveraged funds in GBP fell as of Tuesday (38 of total leveraged fundsrsquo contracts vs. 43 last week). The highest level of net shorts in GBP in the last year was 61, which was in August. Asset managersrsquo net short positioning in GBP rose on the week to 75 vs. 73 last week. rdquo 09:51 France Consumer Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.4) in October: Actual (0.9) 09:46 France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2) in 3Q 09:43 AUD and NZD driven by Trump - Westpac Research Team at Westpac, suggests that the dominant feature of global markets in the wake of Donald Trumprsquos election win has been higher US yields and stronger USD and this has seen Asian currencies on edge in recent weeks, in turn weighing on AUD, despite the ongoing strength in commodity prices. ldquoNow, we do expect USD to remain well supported through 2017, with supportive tailwinds of higher yields, potential Homeland Investment Act (II), a more hawkish composition to the Fedrsquos Board when Trump fills two vacancies, and continued EUR weakness. This referendum is one of a series of key political events in Europe that will continue to see EUR trade heavily, and maybe even through parity over 2017. So regardless of the referendum outcome itself, it adds to the arguments for EU tail-risks and EUR weakness. rdquo ldquoAUD is currently trapped between two strongly opposing forces ndash on one hand US led reflation following Trumprsquos victory and stronger commodity prices, on the other hand fears over further Asian capital flight and China devaluation in the face of a Trump led impact on tariffs and global trade. At the moment we believe that AUDrsquos role as an ldquoAsia hedgerdquo is dominating, and keeping it below our fitted fair value measure. rdquo ldquoSo, to the extent the Italian referendum keeps markets focussed on populism and anti-globalisation thematics as well as keeping volatility higher and EUR weaker, then in that regards it may continue to weigh on AUD and be another factor keeping it below our estimated fair value. rdquo ldquoFor NZD, the story is similar. The NZ backdrop is broadly positive, but this is currently being outweighed by the strong USD and fears around Trumprsquos impact on global trade. Again, if this referendum reinforces anti-establishmentarianism, then it could add to a technically poor outlook and NZD undervaluation. rdquo ldquoFor fixed income, we do see the chance of a ldquosafe havenrdquo bid should the ldquoNordquo vote prevail. Yields have been pushing sharply higher since the US election on Trumprsquos reflation policies and somewhat ignoring potential risks to global trade and growth. Again, should the referendum see markets focus on EU tail-risks as well as populism, nationalism and rising risks to global trade, then it would add to currently oversold conditions and see at least some stabilisation in yields ahead of Decemberrsquos important Fed and ECB meetings. rdquo 09:35 CAD: Nov 30 OPEC meeting looms large RBC CM The Nov 30 OPEC meeting looms large for CAD after Fridayrsquos 4 selloff in WTI, suggests Elsa Lignos, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets. ldquoIf a production cut doesnrsquot materialize as expected by our commodity strategists, that would be the level to watch. Resistance comes in between 1.3575 and 1.3589. Our economists are in line with consensus for Q3 GDP (looking for 3.5q/q ann. after a wildfire-related decline in Q2). But we are below consensus on November employment (looking for -20k cons 0k). That follows almost 140k of gains over the past three months which seem overstated (the gains have also been skewed toward part-time employment). We look for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 7.0.rdquo 09:32 Short EUR/JPY Deutsche Bank Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests to go short on the EUR/JPY pair as their G10 trade idea of the week for the target of 115 while entry being at 119.36 and maintaining a stop of 122.10. ldquoEuroglutrdquo fixed income outflows from the Eurozone picked up in the autumn and are likely to accelerate further with a widening rate differential. By contrast, Japanese demand for unhedged USD assets has abated at current spot levels. Political and financial stresses in the Eurozone periphery favour a dovish surprise from the ECB in December relative to market expectations, while the yen only stands to benefit from a potential negative shift in the lsquobenign Trumprsquo paradigm. Extreme undervaluation also provides more downside protection for the yen. rdquo 09:27 Iran s OilMin: Trump s election has had no effect on new oil and gas contracts so far - IRNA The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), the official news agency of Iran . reported comments from the countryrsquos oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, noting that Trump39s election win has had no effect on Iranrsquos new oil and gas contracts so far. 09:27 Italy: Substantial proportion of voters are still undecided RBC CM Elsa Lignos, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the Italians vote in their referendum on constitutional reform this Sunday and we are now in the blackout period, so no polls can be published, but until the cut-off point they showed a growing lead for the lsquonorsquo side, although a substantial proportion of voters are still undecided. ldquoA lsquonorsquo vote, rejecting the governmentrsquos proposed reform and probably forcing the resignation of current PM Renzi, would likely usher in a period of increased political uncertainty in Italy and would represent a major set-back for economic reform efforts. But those looking for a major EUR sell-off as a result are more likely to be disappointed. rdquo ldquoItaly continues to be a long-term risk for the Euro area, but that is a two-year rather than a two-month trade. Also out this week is Nov flash inflation (the last before the ECBrsquos Dec 8 meeting). The pattern of recent releases looks set to continue: an increase in the headline rate but no discernible upward trend in core (RBC: 0.7y/y). On a slightly more positive note, this week might see Euro area unemployment drop below 10 for only the second time since August 2009 (although progress remains slow).rdquo 09:27 AUD/USD halts ongoing recovery trend, faces rejection at 0.7500 handle Having faced rejection just below 0.7500 psychological mark, the AUD/USD pair reversed early gains to 8-day high and drifted into negative territory. The pair, however, has managed to bounce off session low and is currently trading with only marginally losses around 0.7470 region. The pair on Tuesday struggled for a firm direction as investors preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of this week39s major event risks ranging from the uncertainty surrounding OPEC output deal and the Italian constitutional referendum on Sunday. Meanwhile, the ongoing corrective slide in commodity markets is weighing on commodity-linked currencies - like the Aussie, while renewed greenback buying interest is also contributing to the softer tone surrounding the major on Tuesday. With markets already pricing-in a December Fed rate-hike action, focus now shifts to the central bank39s monetary policy stance beyond December meeting. Hence, focus would remain on this week39s key US macro releases . starting with the revised Q3 GDP growth and Consumer Confidence index on Tuesday ahead of the keenly watched NFP data on Friday. Technical levels to watch Immediate upside resistance is pegged at 0.750 round figure mark, which if cleared has the potential to lift the pair immediately towards the very important 200-day SMA resistance near 0.7520 region. On the downside, weakness below 0.7450 immediate support is likely to accelerate the slide towards 0.7400 strong horizontal support with 0.7430 level acting as intermediate support. 09:21 Italy: Referendum to drive the economic growth - Westpac Research Team at Westpac, notices that Italy has barely grown since 2000 and its GDP remains below pre-crisis levels and youth unemployment is extremely high (over 37) and the banking system has not undertaken any genuine reforms and is persistently at risk of further regional bank failures. ldquoItalyrsquos debt to GDP ratio, at 132, is the second highest within the Eurozone (only Greece is higher at 177 with the Eurozone average being 90). The lack of growth and inability to achieve banking reform leave Italy with the highest Non-Performing Loan (NPL) profile within the Eurozone at around 19.rdquo ldquoRenzirsquos Government claims that the political system is exacerbating the banking sectors problems. Monte dei Paschi, the worldrsquos oldest continually operating (just) bank, is currently struggling to achieve a refinancing package and avoid collapse. rdquo ldquoOn the positive side for Italy, its corporate sector is not heavily indebted and the household balance sheet profile is strong. However, private and especially household ownership of bank debt is high which adds to the political difficulty of resolving the bad debt and the sectorrsquos need for consolidation (Italy has some 300 banking institutions).rdquo ldquoItaly, along with Spain, also has a large and growing deficit within the Eurozonersquos cross border, electronic (central) banking settlement system (Target 2). In Italyrsquos case, this could be considered as a consequence of its banking issues. Depositors seem to have a preference to hold their EUR in non-Italian banks to safeguard against possible failure. Germany is the dominant creditor, but smaller countries such as Netherlands and Luxembourg have notable credit positions which, in a NIRP environment, mean that there is an effective painful transfer from those creditor countries. rdquo ldquoAll of these issues add to the concerns in markets about what might occur if Italy votes No to the constitutional reforms and the uncertainty that would arise over Italyrsquos government. rdquo ldquoIt is unlikely that a No vote will force Italy immediately towards early elections (the current profile is that elections need to be called by mid-2018) as it has a long history of forming new Governments under such scenarios. However, yields are likely to rise between 25-75bps against Bunds and the impact on EUR is likely to force it to test its 18 month lows (in the 1.0450 area) if not eventually parity against USD. rdquo ldquoConversely, a Yes vote could come as a surprise positive for Italian assets, prospects for its banking sector and therefore for EUR. However, given the economic and political realities, the outcome is not likely to be an immediate unleashing of pent up reforms and a release from economic stagnation. Gains may themselves be short-lived should there be moves to restrict the actual details of the proposed reforms. rdquo 09:15 Forex Today: DXY extends consolidation, German CPI, US GDP - key Broad based US dollar consolidation emerged the underlying theme in Asia, as markets took a breather heading into a data-heavy US calendar and OPEC meeting due later in the week. The Japanese yen fought hard to regain control all-through the Asian session against the greenback, in wake of upbeat domestic economic releases, but in vain, as JPY sellers continued to lurk around 112 handle. Moving on, markets await fresh impetus from upcoming macro releases, with the UK net lending to individuals data kicking-off an eventful calendar ahead, which will be followed by the German CPI and US GDP report. Further, the Canadian current account as well as US consumer confidence data will be also watched for fresh momentum across the fx board. Apart from data, FOMC members Dudley and Powell are scheduled to deliver speeches later in the NA session. Main topics in Asia Saudi Arabia offering Iran a freeze at 3.7 mln barrels per day - Livesquawk According to Livesquawk, Saudi Arabia is said to be offering Iran a freeze at 3.7 mln barrels per day, which falls short of the 3.97 mln bpd Iran has asked for. BOCrsquos Poloz: Need to be ready for the use of additional tools with rates so low BOC Governor Poloz continues to address the Q amp A session, this time speaking on the monetary policy. Asian stocks trade mixed amid OPEC talks, US GDP eyed The stocks on the Asian indices were trading a mixed bag, as traders remain on the back foot amid ongoing OPEC output cut consultations, while attention turns towards the US GDP report due later in the NA session. Brent oil ndash stuck between weekly 50-MA amp 100-MA Brent prices trade between the weekly 50-MA and weekly 100-MA level for the fourth straight week. Key focus for the day ahead EUR to trade with a negative bias ahead of the Italian referendum - ING Research Team at ING, expects the EUR to trade with a negative bias ahead of this weekend39s Italian constitutional referendum (Sun). Goldman Sachs: Oil prices could rally above 50 on OPEC output cut Analysts at Goldman Sachs published their latest preview on Wednesdayrsquos OPEC meeting and its subsequent impact on oil prices. US Q3 prelim GDP preview - BAML Analyst at Bank of America/Merrill (BAML) came out with their preview for the upcoming US GDP data . lined up for release later in the NA session. Russian EnergyMin Novak: No plan to meet OPEC in Vienna tomorrow - RIA Latest headlines crossed the wires from the Russian energy minister Novak, via Russiarsquos news agency RIA, noting that that Russia has no plan to meet OPEC in Vienna tomorrow. US: Soft jobs report to offset strong activity data mixed week for the USD - ING Research Team at ING, suggests that given all the hype about Trumpeconomics and a proposed fiscal package, there is an added layer of anticipation over this week39s US data. 09:13 Make or break week for CAD worst-case could see USD/CAD at 1.38 ING Research Team at ING, notes that two sources of risk for CAD this week are the: (1) oil price volatility stemming from the OPEC meeting and (2) domestic data including the 3Q16 GDP release (Wed) and Nov jobs report (Fri). ldquoGovernor Poloz39s revelation that further easing was discussed at the last meeting means that there will be particular attention on the latest growth figures any outcome below 3.0 QoQ is likely to be seen as a disappointment and will result in heightened calls for a BoC rate cut. Expect to see a lot of noise around prospective OPEC production cuts: major oil producers (incl. non-OPEC) were due to hold informal talks today, but this was cancelled the main challenge is to resolve internal disagreements amongst OPEC nations (namely the big three ndash Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran) on how output cuts will be distributed. In the worst-case scenario (inadequate OPEC deal, weak Canadian growth data and strong US data), we could see USD/CAD move up to 1.3800.rdquo 09:08 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.7) in October: Actual (0.3) 09:02 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) came in at -0.1, above forecasts (-0.8) in October 08:58 GBP/USD struggles to gather traction, near 1.2400 The British Pound is navigating within a narrow range vs. the buck today, with GBP/USD managing to keep the trade above the 1.2400 handle so far. GBP/USD attention to UK, US data The pair is extending its sideline theme in the lower end of the range around 1.2400 the figure, shedding more than a cent since yesterdayrsquos tops in the 1.2530/35 band. The greenback has recovered the ground lost at the beginning of the week, although a cautious tone seems to prevail among investors in light of the upcoming risk events: the OPEC meeting (Wednesday), US Non-farm Payrolls (Friday) and the Italian Referendum (Sunday). Data wise today, Mortgage Approvals, BoErsquos Consumer Credit and Net Lending to Individuals are all due in the UK, while another revision of Q3 GDP, CBrsquos Consumer Confidence and speeches by NY Fed W. Dudley (permanent voter, neutral) and J. Powell (permanent voter, neutral) are expected in the US docket. On the positioning side, GBP speculative net shorts have dropped to the lowest level since mid-September and Open Interest stayed at 4-week lows during the week ended on November 22 according to the latest CFTC report, reflecting the better tone seen in GBP in past weeks. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is losing 0.06 at 1.2407 facing the next support at 1.2308 (low Nov.21) followed by 1.2297 (low Nov.18) and finally 1.2081 (low Oct.25). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2526 (55-day sma) would expose 1.2533 (high Nov.28) and then 1.2675 (high Nov.11). 08:52 Russias Novak: Time for OPEC and non-OPEC meeting still being discussed - RTRS More comments crossing the wires from the Russian energy minister Novak, as he continues to speak about Russiarsquos non-participation in the forthcoming OPEC meeting. Has always said Russia does not take part in OPEC meetings Time for OPEC and non-OPEC meeting still being discussed 08:40 USD/JPY range-bound around 112.00 mark, eyeing US GDP for fresh impetus The USD/JPY pair was confined within a narrow trading band around 112.00 handle as investors now look forward to a slew of important market-moving US economic data for fresh impetus. Following its recent up-surge of nearly 1200-pips to 8-1/2 month highs, the pair39s corrective pull-back in the previous two trading sessions could be categorized as consolidation phase amid near-term overbought conditions. The prevalent cautious sentiment around Asian equity markets is extending support to the Japanese Yen39s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, speculations of faster Fed rate-hike action in 2017 continue to underpin the greenback, resulting into range-bound price action around the major. Hence, this week39s US macro data catches additional focus in order to determine the timing of next Fed rate-hike action, beyond December meeting. The first revision of US GDP growth figure for the third quarter of 2016 and Consumer Confidence index, slated for release later during NA session, should provide fresh impetus for the pair. Later during the week, US monthly jobs report ( NFP ) will grab all the attention and would be a key determinant for the pair39s next leg of directional move. Technical levels to watch From current levels, 112.50 area is likely to act as immediate resistance above which the pair seems all set to surpass 113.00 handle and dart towards 113.25 resistance area. On the downside, weakness below 111.35 (yesterday39s low) is likely to drag the pair below 111.00 handle towards testing its next support near 110.80 region. 08:39 Russian EnergyMin Novak: No plan to meet OPEC in Vienna tomorrow - RIA Latest headlines crossed the wires from the Russian energy minister Novak, via Russiarsquos news agency RIA, noting that that Russia has no plan to meet OPEC in Vienna tomorrow. Novak added that they will hold consultations with OPEC when it has reached a consensus. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks extend the downside, with WTI losing -0.76 to 46.70, while Brent drops -0.90 to 48.80. 08:32 China SAFE adopts fresh measures to stem capital outflows - RTRS Reuters quoting sources with knowledge of the new rules, cite that Chinarsquos FX regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is unveiling new measures to curb capital outflows after the Yuan hit more-than eight-year lows last week. Sources with direct knowledge of the rules noted: quotPreviously, only forex transfers worth 50 million or more needed to be reported to SAFE. Now, the threshold has been drastically lowered to 5 million, and covers both foreign currency and yuanquot quotAll we can do is to ask clients to be patient, and tell them that the transaction is being vetted by SAFE for authenticity and may not be approvedquot However, the SAFE declined to respond to a Reuters request for comment. 08:32 AUD: OECD projecting growth to pick up to 3 by 2018 - TDS Research Team at TDS, notes that the OECD released their Global Economic Outlook overnight with a positive outlook for the Australian economy, projecting growth to pick up to 3 by 2018, as resource investment tails off while consumption, investment and the jobs market improve. ldquoIn fact the OECD states ldquo. no further easing is projected, and rate increases are projected to begin towards the end of 2017 as spare capacity fades. rdquo A key factor behind no further rate cuts are housing market developments, where the OECD states ldquo. Despite the employment of macro-prudential measures to cool the housing market, the net gain from monetary easing has narrowed. Significant housing market concerns remain and there is growing discord between financial market developments and rest of the economy due to the low-interest-rate environmentrdquo. Should growth disappoint, the OECD sees fiscal policy, not monetary policy doing the heavy lifting given housing market concerns. While SampP may have sounded the alarm on Australiarsquos AAA rating, the OECD does see ldquospace for fiscal loosening given the low public-debt burdenrdquo and suggests ldquoacceleratedrdquo infrastructure spending could pay dividends across the economyrdquo. rdquo ldquoThe Housing Industry Associationrsquos (HIA) New Home Sales report showed new home sales fell sharply in Oct. Total Sales fell 8.5, with detached houses ndash8.2 and apartments ndash9.2 the split. The largest reduction in sales volume was in Victoria (-20.4), WA (-5.6 and NSW (-2.8). In absolute terms, total new home sales hit the lowest level since July 2014. Tomorrow we will get data on Building Approvals for Oct with Sep showing a 8.7 drop, a much larger than expected decline of 3.rdquo 08:19 EUR/USD manages to regain 1.0600 ahead of German CPI The EUR/USD pair is seen making minor-recovery attempts above 1.06 handle, aiming for a retest of daily highs of 1.0622 amid intensifying risk-off moods. EUR/USD: Attention to German CPI, US GDP amp Fed speaks Currently, EUR/USD trades modestly flat at 1.0607, extending recovery from 1.0589, session lows. A fresh selling-wave witnessed in oil prices triggered a renewed bout of risk-aversion across the financial markets, which boosts the funding currency status of the euro. Moreover, extension of the retreat in the US treasury yields stalled the upbeat momentum behind the US dollar versus its main competitors, thus, rescuing the EUR bulls from below 1.06 handle. Later today, the major is likely to get influenced by the fundamentals, with the German CPI data to release ahead of the US GDP report and consumer confidence numbers. Besides, Fedspeaks from Powell and Dudley will also remain in the limelight. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0621 (daily pivot). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0685 (weekly high) and from there to 1.0700 (round figure) On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0561 (Nov 28 low) below which 1.0535 (Nov 25 low) and 1.0515 (multi-month low) could be tested. 08:10 US: Soft jobs report to offset strong activity data mixed week for the USD - ING Research Team at ING, suggests that given all the hype about Trumpeconomics and a proposed fiscal package, there is an added layer of anticipation over this week39s US data. ldquoThe narrowing of the equity risk premium in recent weeks suggests a positive shift in US (and global) growth expectations and signs of healthy economic activity (a positive 3Q GDP revision, ISM manufacturing and housing market data) would justify this belief. Offsetting this, however, may be a tapering of inflation expectations we expect a statistical quirk to result in a softer wage growth pickup in Fridayrsquos US jobs report and this may see US yields retreat from their recent highs. While this would suggest a softer outlook for the (and potential for a consolidation of recent gains), we still think the big picture remains constructive. Look for a fall back in the DXY to 100 as an opportunity to go long. rdquo 08:02 South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) climbed from previous 5.64 to 6.62 in October 08:02 South Africa Private Sector Credit declined to 6.31 in October from previous 7.19 08:01 Italy: Political implications of No vote - Westpac Research Team at Westpac, explains that if we do see a ldquoNordquo vote in the upcoming Italian referendum then Renzi has stated he will resign and is not willing to take part in any potential technocratic government. ldquoHis opponents, both in other parties and within his own, have leapt on this as a potential means to oust him and he has since tried to backtrack on this statement, whilst appearing to stay good to his word. Again, as we have seen in recent political events, we are far from certain this will play out as expected, and while the assumption of Renzi resignation and then elections is possible, there are several other potential outcomes (with our estimated probabilities below): The President could reject Renzirsquos resignation and ask him to go back and form another coalition. (15) The President could accept and ask someone else to form a Government. (30) Renzi does not resign, carries on and then faces possible no confidence votes and the previous two options occur. (10) Renzi does not resign but has to form a grand coalition with other parties to avoid no confidence votes. (5) 40 chance of YES. rdquo 07:54 Japan: Structural low growth and the way out - Nomura Research Team at Nomura, notes that the secular stagnation theory has been attracting attention recently as the dissatisfaction has been spreading over the performance of the global economy, which appears to have played a role in the Brexit vote and the choice of Donald Trump as US president. ldquoFor Japan, which has long faced a declining population growth rate, however, we think it is more useful to view the global economy as being in a state of quotlow growth. quot In other words, growth is low as a result of a lull in the investment booms of emerging economies but at the same time labor-market tightening appears to be preventing a self-perpetuating deterioration in the economy and supporting some level of growth. We think these conditions are unlikely to change for some time and expect the global economy, including the Japanese economy, to remain in a stage of quotlow growthquot for the time being. rdquo ldquoWhat quotlow growthquot actually means In a world of low growth, the following conditions can be expected to prevail. First, the price of goods tends not to rise while the price of people (wages) tends not to fall. It is difficult to pin down the direction of inflation and monetary policy. Second, to the extent that wages are resistant to declines, household budgets are well-placed to benefit. Population decline is also unlikely to be sufficient to cause consumer spending to start to fall. Third, the US dollar is unlikely to appreciate sharply, which could present opportunities to invest in emerging economies having problems with dollar-denominated debt. Fourth, companies tend to hold back on business expansion, and shareholder returns and MampA become important themes. Fifth, income redistribution policies including a tax on undistributed profits could be adopted to fend off pressure for helicopter money. rdquo ldquoScenario of collapse of emerging economy bubble As a downside risk, one possible scenario is a fading in the investment boom in China leading to the bursting of the country39s asset bubble. Although that might not spark an international financial crisis, a stalling in the Chinese economymdashthe world39s second largestmdashcould in itself be expected to lead to slowing global demand. We think caution is needed regarding the possibility that in Japan, which could be expected to slip back into deflation, we might see growing calls for the injection of helicopter money. Even if it were possible to stimulate the economy without major disruption to financial markets, we see only a narrow path to success with helicopter money from the perspective of improving economic welfare considering the difficulties posed by exit policies. rdquo ldquoScenario of overcoming secular stagnation In the context of a low-growth economy, one might expectmdashas an upside scenariomdash improvement in productivity through technological innovations and systemic reforms to help resolve issues with population decline and labor shortages, as well as more proactive investment. Against the backdrop of the growing possibility the Abe administration will be prolonged, steady progress is being made in pushing through growth strategies in such areas as infrastructure exports. In our view, key issues from here on include eliminating bottlenecks facing the fourth industrial revolution. Efforts being promoted by the Financial Services Agency (FSA) to reform lending by regional financial institutions could, through easing population concentration in Tokyo, stimulate regional economies and thus bolster Japan39s economic growth. rdquo 07:53 Goldman Sachs: Oil prices could rally above 50 on OPEC output cut Analysts at Goldman Sachs published their latest preview on Wednesdayrsquos OPEC meeting and its subsequent impact on oil prices. Key Headlines via Livesquawk: If the proposed OPEC production cut to 32.5 Mb/D is agreed to, we would expect prices to rally to the low 50s/Bbl, with observed implementation required to support prices further If no deal is reached, our expectation of rising inventories through 1H17 would warrant prices averaging 45/Bbl through next Summerquot With the Brent market in our view only pricing in a 30 pct probability of a deal being reached and the option market pricing in a 6/bbl move, we believe that a move to below 40/bbl would be difficult to sustain Even in the absence of a cut, expects oil market to move into deficit by 2h17 07:49 EUR to trade with a negative bias ahead of the Italian referendum - ING Research Team at ING, expects the EUR to trade with a negative bias ahead of this weekend39s Italian constitutional referendum (Sun). ldquoA ldquoNordquo vote would see an initial knee-jerk move lower in EUR/USD towards the 2015 low (1.0458). Short NOK plays look attractive this week given oil price volatility and rising EZ political risks a relative lack of UK focus means that we see value in long GBP/NOK (target 10.90).rdquo 07:43 NZD/USD: Bulls back in control, re-takes 0.7100 After a brief stint to the downside, the NZD bulls regained lost footing and jumped back on the bids last hours, now pushing NZD/USD back towards 0.71 handle. NZD/USD: 20-DMA ndash A tough nut to crack Currently, the NZD/USD pair advances 0.08 to trade near daily highs of 0.7086 reached at Tokyo-open. The Kiwi moved-off lows and now reverts to the familiar ranges seen during the openings, as the bulls find support stalled USD buying, as the buck extends its consolidation phase into early Europe. The NZD/USD pair extends its short-covering rally into a third day today, as investors seek to lock-in gains after last weekrsquos extensive sell-off ahead of the OPECrsquos decision on output cut and RBNZ Financial Stability Report (FSR) due out tomorrow. In the meantime, markets look forward to the US GDP report due later in the NA session today. NZD/USD Levels to consider To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7100/05 (zero figure/ previous high), above which it could extend gains to 0.7149 (50-DMA) and from there to 0.7210 (100-DMA). To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7050 (5-DMA) and from there to at 0.7000 (key support), below which 0.6949 (July low) would be tested. 07:24 US keeps pressure on OPEC Deutsche Bank Rising US oil production is a sign of things to come, suggests Research Team at Deutsche Bank. ldquoThe recent increase in reported United States crude oil production of 190 kb/ d refocuses our attention on the eventual pace of production growth being embedded by this year39s rise in drilling activity. If the oil-directed rig count were to continue rising through the middle, or alternatively the end of 2017, we would expect US crude oil production growth could return to growth ranging from 800 kb/d to 1.3 mmb/d yoy in 2018 on a conservative rig productivity assumption. This is based on year-end 2017 oil-directed rig count of between 613 and 705, assuming 70 oil-directed rigs outside of the seven major unconventional basins. In order to see a disappointment from this production forecast, we would either need to see rig counts leveling out relatively soon, or rig productivity begin to fall, neither of which appears likely at the moment. rdquo ldquoIn our view, a WTI price of USD 52/bbl could very well be supportive of such an extended build in rig counts by making further acreage economic. A further extrapolation of this trend, sustaining a constant rig count at the end-17 level (in either of the above scenarios), would suggest roughly the same rate of production growth again in 2019.rdquo 07:13 China State Council: Need to bolster service consumption Xinhua reports news published late-Monday, noting that the Chinese government has issued guidelines to boost consumption of services, in a bid to build the tertiary sector to a new growth driver. The State Council document read, quotWe will manage to unleash potential consumption by improving service quality and increasing service supply. quot 07:09 Markets: All eyes on politicians - ANZ Research Team at ANZ, suggests that while financial markets might be starting to look for new drivers, politicians and policymakers are now very much in the driverrsquos seat. ldquoFinancial markets are going to have to get used to decisions and policies taking longer to be negotiated and finalised compared with central banks. A great example of this is the supposed oil production cuts from OPEC and some others, which has now been talked about for some months but has yet to materialise. Thatrsquos just the nature of government and global policy making. The outcomes can often be more opaque too, with a difference between agreed policy and actual real world outcomes. This means a sense of patience and pragmatism needs to be applied. rdquo ldquoThis was highlighted recently by both the ECB and FOMC saying they need to see what actual US fiscal policies are before assessing the impact on interest rate profiles. Itrsquos the same in the UK too. The BoErsquos Gertjan Vlieghe said overnight that inflation at 0.5 above the BoErsquos 2 target ldquois not the limitrdquo, suggesting that the BoE will look through the GBPrsquos first round inflation impacts and also wait to assess what other Brexit impacts are too. This includes the effects on the labour market, terms of trade, migration, and foreign direct investment to name but a few. rdquo 07:03 Oil: Prices rebound even as the prospect for a supply cut deal still appear tenuous - BNZ Kymberly Martin, Senior Market Strategist at BNZ, explains that the global oil price managed a bit of a rebound (WTI 3) overnight even as the prospects for a supply cut deal still appear tenuous ahead of Wednesdayrsquos OPEC meeting, but have been helped by comments from Iraqrsquos oil minister. ldquoHe was quoted overnight as saying he was ldquooptimisticrdquo a deal will be reached at OPECrsquos summit. The rebound in the oil price has no doubt supported the performance of the lsquooil-linkedrsquo CAD overnight. The CAD has rebounded 0.8 against the USD since the start of the week. The USD/CAD now trade at 1.3400.rdquo 06:58 Commodities higher on weaker USD - ANZ Research Team at ANZ, notes that the commodities were higher as the USD weakened and the outlook for steel-related commodities improved. ldquo Crude oil prices rallied as yesterdayrsquos pessimism about a production cut agreement turned to optimism as OPEC reiterated its goal to reach an agreement. Saudi Arabia had earlier suggested the group doesnrsquot necessarily need to cut production. However, Iraqrsquos Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said hersquos ldquooptimisticrdquo a deal will be reached at OPECrsquos summit in Vienna on Wednesday. Some OPEC members also travelled to Moscow to try to convince Russia to join the production cut agreement. rdquo ldquo Industrial metals were stronger as the outlook for demand improved. Chinarsquos NDRC approved a RMB247bn railway plan to link Beijing to neighbouring cities. Zinc led the gains as the commodity (which is already in deficit) is seen to benefit the most from such an infrastructure plan. The new railway plan also helped boost sentiment in the steel and iron ore markets. Iron ore was also supported by a fall in port inventories in China. rdquo ldquoA weaker USD and increasing political risks in Europe saw investors return to gold . Italian Prime Minister Renzi faces a key referendum this weekend which could bring further upheaval to the country. Weaker equity markets in the US also boosted goldrsquos appeal. rdquo ldquo Agriculture markets were mixed. Grains were broadly higher, led by gains in soybeans. In softs, sugar rose on the back of tight supply in China. rdquo 06:51 GBP/JPY fails once again near daily tops The cross in the GBP/JPY is seen consolidating yesterdayrsquos steep drop, after having failed to sustain the break above 139 handle. GBP/JPY back below 139 handle Currently, GBP/JPY trades -0.17 lower at 138.74, having posted a dayrsquos high at 139.22 and a dayrsquos low at 138.57. GBP/JPYrsquos recovery from daily lows lost legs once again near 139.20 region, sending the rate back towards the lower bound of todayrsquos trading range. The latest leg down in the cross is largely on the back of fresh selling interest seen behind USD/JPY, as the demand for yen picks-up pace amid further deterioration in risk sentiment. Moreover, the sustained bearish pressure on the cable continues to keep any recovery in GBP/JPY short-lived. All eyes remain on the USD price-action ahead of the US GDP release due later in the NA session. While from the UK docket, we have the second-tier in Net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data due later in Europe. GBP/JPY Levels to consider The pair has an immediate resistance at 139.22 (daily high), above which 139.64 (daily pivot) could be tested. On the flip side, support is seen at 138.10 (daily S1) that at 137.18 (Nov 23 low). 06:29 Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) declined to -8.5 in November from previous 2.7 06:27 AUD/USD ends 3-day bullish run, targets 10-DMA The AUD/USD pair fell for the first in four days this Tuesday, driven by selling across the commodities space and renewed strength in the US dollar across the board. AUD/USD nears 5-DMA support at 0.7449 Currently, the AUD/USD pair drops -0.20 to 0.7466, hovering within a striking distance of daily lows struck at 0.7459 in the last hour. The Australian dollar is seen retracing a part of the recent rally versus the US dollar in the Asian session, knocking-off the rate further below 0.75 handle. The major came under fresh selling pressure after sentiment turned cautious amid increased nervousness surrounding the ongoing OPEC output cut/freeze talks, and hence, weighed on the oil prices, eventually impacting the resource-linked AUD. Also, tumbling copper prices dragged the Aussie lower. Further, it can be also seen that a pick-up in demand for the US dollar has also contributed to the weakness surrounding the AUD/USD pair. The USD index regains poise and trade as around 101.40, up 0.18 on the day. The immediate focus now remains on the US GDP release and Fed speaks due on the cards later tonight, while the Australian private capex data and US NFP report will remain the next key drivers for the spot later this week. AUD/USD Levels to watch The pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7505 (Nov 17 high) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 0.7543 (daily R2) and 0.7572 (50-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support located 0.7449 (5-DMA). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7405 (10-DMA) and below that at 0.7358 (Nov 24 low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 06:26 China: Increasingly complex financial system is driving a change in monetary policy - NAB Gerard Burg, Senior Economist at NAB, notes that since the middle of 2015, the seven-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has been unusually stable ndash when compared with the extreme volatility in this market over the preceding five years. ldquoThis highlights a low profile shift in the management of Chinarsquos monetary policy that was necessary to control an increasingly complex, interconnected financial system. rdquo ldquoThe gradual process of financial deregulation contributed to growing competition between Chinarsquos banks, at a time that they were also facing greater pressure from non-bank financial institutions. In particular, Chinese banks started to face increased competition for deposits. Long used to low yielding bank deposits, Chinese consumers embraced new alternatives that offered higher returns ndash such as short term money market mutual funds and longer term trust and bond market investment products. This contributed to the introduction of Bank Wealth Management Products (WMPs) in the latter part of last decade. rdquo ldquoWMPs have been directed to high yielding (and often riskier) investments ndash such as bonds or shadow banking products like trust loans ndash increasing the interconnections between banks and non-bank financial institutions. rdquo ldquoThe switch towards a more modern approach to managing Chinarsquos monetary policy is encouraging ndash as it provides greater funding stability for the countryrsquos increasingly interconnected banks. That said, more needs to be done ndash particularly around communicating policy targets (the IMF recommend using the 7 day reverse repo rate) and regulation (particularly with non-bank financial institutions).rdquo 05:55 Brent oil stuck between weekly 50-MA amp 100-MA Brent prices trade between the weekly 50-MA and weekly 100-MA level for the fourth straight week. The weekly 50-MA is seen today at 44.178, while the weekly 100-MA is seen at 49.20. Focus on OPEC meeting The bar of expectations has been set very low due to the repeated failure on the part of the OPEC to reach a deal this year. Furthermore, the Cartel ended their meeting on Monday without agreeing on the concrete details of the output cut deal. It remains to be seen if the OPEC is successful in reaching a deal on the Nov 30 ministerial gathering. Till then the OPEC sound bites are expected to guide the action in the oil prices. Brent Technical Levels Brent was last seen trading around 47.87/barrel. A break above 48.78 (weekly high) would expose 49.20 (weekly 100-MA), above which the psychological level of 50.00 stands exposed. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 47.00 would shift risk in favor of a drop to key support levels of 46.31 (Weekly low) and 44.178 (weekly 50-MA). 05:55 US Q3 prelim GDP preview - BAML Analyst at Bank of America/Merrill (BAML) came out with their preview for the upcoming US GDP data . lined up for release later in the NA session. quotWe forecast 3Q GDP was likely revised slightly upward to 3.1 in the second release, up from 2.9 initially. Stronger consumer spending, structures investment, and trade will be the main drivers of the upward revision. rdquo ldquoResidential investment and equipment will also be slightly better. These gains will be offset by a downward revision to inventories. rdquo ldquoBoth the GDP Price index and core PCE price indices should be unrevised in the 3Q, at 1.5 and 1.7 respectively. quot 05:49 USD/CNY: Yuan strengthens the most in over 2 months The Chinese currency extended the recovery from multi-year lows against its American counterpart on Tuesday, advancing the most in more-than two-months after an PBOC official talks up the domestic currency. PBOC deputy governor Yi Gang noted in an interview with Xinhua News Agency, the Yuan will continue to remain stable in the future and the nationrsquos foreign reserves are ample. The PBOC set the yuan reference point against the US dollar at 6.8889, 153 basis points or 0.18 stronger than Mondayrsquos fix of 6.9042. 05:38 EUR/GBP stuck at 38.2 of 2007 low-2008 high EUR/GBP is once again having a tough time breaching the key hurdle of 0.8556 (38.2 of 2077 low - 2008 high) ahead of the German preliminary CPI data release. The German preliminary CPI figure is expected to show the cost of living ticked higher to 0.9 y/y from Octoberrsquos print of 0.8 y/y. Apart from the data, the traders would also keep an eye on the broader market sentiment. Oil-led risk-off could strengthen the bid tone around the EUR and vice versa. EUR/GBP Technical Levels The cross was last seen trading around 0.8645. A break above 0.8556 (38.2 of 2077 low - 2008 high) would open doors for 0.86 (zero figure), beyond which a major hurdle is seen at 0.8628 (100-DMA). On the lower side, breakdown of support at 0.8527 (10-DMA) could yield a drop to 0.85 (5-DMA). A violation there would expose 0.8460 (Nov 24 low). 05:20 China reserve ratio cut no longer expected this year - BBG Survey According to the latest Bloomberg Survey, the Peoplersquos Bank of China ( PBOC ) is expected to leave the reserve ratio unchanged at 17 through year-end. Key Details of the survey: Survey was conducted during Nov. 21-28 Reserve ratio to remain unchanged at 17 through year-end, instead of the quarter point cut forecasters projected in the October survey. Still estimated the rate will be cut to 16.5 in the first quarter of next year. The producer-price index, which snapped four years of deflation in September, will finish the year rising 1.8 from a year earlier, more than double their estimate for a 0.8 increase in last monthrsquos survey. Raised growth estimate for the current quarter to 6.7, up from 6.6 in last monthrsquos poll. 05:10 S amp P sees Asia Pacific s economic growth steadying Headlines crossed the wires from the US-based ratings agency, S amp P, earlier today, after having released an exclusive review on the Asia-Pacific economy. Asian Pacific investors concerned on US Trade policies Asia Pacific39s economic growth appears to be steadying 05:07 EUR/JPY tests 23.6 Fibo support, eyes German CPI release The EUR/JPY pair tested 118.64 (23.6 of 113.72-120.16) levels ahead of the German data release, which is expected to show the cost of living remained unchanged in November. Rejected at 119.00 The offered tone around the Yen gathered pace, helping the EUR/JPY recover from the session low of 118.55. However, the cross failed to take out the psychological resistance of 119.00. The preliminary data due later today is expected to show the CPI for November ticked higher to 0.9 y/y from the October print of 0.8. Apart from the data, the oil price action and the resulting risk-on/risk-off could heat up the battle between the funding currencies ndash EUR amp JPY. EUR/JPY Technical Levels A break above 119.00 (session high) would open doors for a rise to 119.31 (Nov 25 low), above which a major hurdle at 119.78 (previous dayrsquos high) could be put to test. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 118.64 (23.6 Fibo) would open doors for sell-off to 118.15 (Nov 22 high) and 117.70 (38.2 Fibo). 05:02 EUR/GBP mid-term buyers gaining momentum On the 4H EUR/GBP chart, the MACD has moved above zero denoting an uptrend. Such a momentum indication, unseen for at least for more that a week, indicates that key price breaks are on the horizon. Likely, momentum traders who had been waiting for this technical signal will likely try to push EUR/GBP higher. 05:02 Asian stocks trade mixed amid OPEC talks, US GDP eyed The stocks on the Asian indices were trading a mixed bag, as traders remain on the back foot amid ongoing OPEC output cut consultations, while attention turns towards the US GDP report due later in the NA session. Subdued trading activity seen around oil prices combined with the recent gains in the Japanese currency, keeps the Japanese stocks under pressure. Further, upbeat economic news from Japan, also failed to boost the regionrsquos indices. More so, a negative close on the Wall Street overnight also dampened investorsrsquo sentiment. Meanwhile, Japanrsquos Nikkei 225 drops -0.27 to 18,306, the Australian SampP/ASX 200 advances 0.31 to 5,481. The Chinese equities edge higher, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index up 0.22, while CSI300 index ticks 0.68 higher. Hong Kong markets trade modestly flat around 22,800 levels. 04:48 GBP/USD: Downside opening up for a test of 1.2300 The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure so far this session, having breached 1.24 handle once again, as the bears eye a break below Mondayrsquos low for further downside. GBP/USD: Risk-off weighs The cable ran through fresh offers at 1.2420 region, and from there drifted lower to now trade just below 1.24 handle, with lower tops being made on the hourly sticks, suggesting more downside in-stored. From a wider perspective, the GBP/USD pair extends its range-bound momentum and now consolidates near the lower bound of the range, aiming for a retest of mid-Nov lows reached near 1.23 handle. Focus now remains on the US GDP figures for fresh momentum on the major, with downside favored amid expectations of a better GDP print, which is likely to seal in a Dec Fed rate hike. GBP/USD Levels to consider In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are lined up at 1.2420 (daily high), 1.2445/49 (5 amp 20-DMA) and 1.2504 (daily R1). While supports are seen at 1.2381 (50-DMA/ previous low) and 1.2357 (Nov 23 low) and below that at 1.2308 (Nov 21 low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 04:44 BOCs Poloz: Too early to tell impact of Trump election Bank of Canadarsquos Poloz, during the press conference, said it is too early to tell the impact of Trump election and the central bank would not react to hypotheticals. Poloz added that the level of uncertainty for businesses has dropped following US elections. ldquoSome view of higher rates in US was already in forecastrdquo, Poloz said. 04:34 USD/JPY off-highs, tracks Nikkei, T-yields lower USD/JPY fades a spike to 112.25 region, and now reverts to 112 handle amid a softer tone seen on the Japanese stocks as well as in the US treasury yields. USD/JPY hovers above 10-DMA at 111.94 The major is seen consolidating around 112 handle over the last hour, having failed sustain the recovery at higher levels as slightly risk-averse market environment keeps the safe-haven yen underpinned at the expense of the higher-yielding treasury yields. Moreover, the yen also finds some support from better-than expected Japanese retail sales and household spending data released earlier on the day. However, the retreat in the USD/JPY pair remains capped amid a brief phase of upside consolidation seen in the US dollar across the board, as the buck consolidates the Trump-win backed rally. The spot now awaits fresh impetus from the upcoming US macro news, the prelim GDP and consumer confidence data, for next direction. While speeches from the Fed official Dudley and Powell due later on Tuesday, will be also closely heard. However, the main risk event for this week remains the US payrolls data due out on Friday. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 112.24 (daily high). A break above the last, the major could test 112.61 (5-DMA) and 112.94 (R1) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 111.43 (1h 200-SMA) next at 111.15 (daily S1) and below that at 110.80 (Nov 23 low). 04:21 EUR/USD - Doji candle ahead of German CPI and US GDP Mondayrsquos Doji candle on the EUR/USD pair suggests indecisiveness ahead of the release of the preliminary German CPI for November and Q3 US GDP. Eyes German CPI amp broader market sentiment The preliminary German CPI report for November is expected to show the cost of living remained unchanged at 0.8 y/y. The data could increase/decrease pressure on the ECB to fight the deflationary pressures. The US GDP release may not receive much attention since markets expect Trumponomics to boost the GDP next year. Meanwhile, the action in the oil prices and the resulting impact on the broader market sentiment could influence the pair. EUR/USD Technical Levels The spot was last seen trading around 1.06. A break above 1.0658 (Nov 22 high) would expose 1.0702 (23.6 of Nov 9 high ndash Nov 24 low) and 1.0760 (Nov 16 high). On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 1.06 (zero figure) would open doors for a sell-off to 1.0569 (Nov 18 low) and 1.0518 (Nov 24 low). 04:13 Gold regains 1190 amid retreat in treasury yields Gold is seen reversing a dip to low and now jumps back above 1190 levels, as a retreat in the shorter duration treasury yields offer some support to the bulls. Gold awaits US GDP Currently, Comex gold futures trade modestly higher at 1193, heading for a test of 10-DMA located at 1196.40. Gold prices remain better bid amid a brief phase of consolidation seen in the US dollar against its major rivals, while a fresh move lower in the treasury yields also buoy the sentiment around the non-yielding asset, gold. The 2-year treasury yields, which mimic the short-term interest rate expectations, drop -0.72 to trade around 1.103. Moreover, mixed sentiment seen around the Asian indices, also boosts the demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. Looking ahead, the bullion awaits the release of the all-important US prelim GDP report and consumer confidence data due later in the NA session. Besides, a slew of Fed speaks will also remain in the spotlight for any hints on Fedrsquos further rate hike prospects. Comex Gold Technical Levels The metal has an immediate resistance at 1200 (key resistance) and 1210 (round figure). Meanwhile, the support stands at 1186.70 (5-DMA) below which doors could open for 1177 (multi-month low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 04:02 EUR/NOK bears remain unobstructed The hourly ADX(14) has just crossed above 50, emerging from below the 30 levels where it has been seen during the previous market session. This is a less frequent technical set-up which suggests the EUR/NOK pair should be on its way to achieve further lows the days ahead. Caution is advised on a possible overshoot threat to the falling 200-SMA, now printing above the recent close. 03:59 USD/CAD pays no heed to Poloz comments Upbeat comments from Bank of Canadarsquos (BOC) Poloz failed to have any impact on the USD/CAD, leaving it largely unchanged on the day above 1.34 handle. The Canadian dollar remains at the mercy of the action in the oil prices. The OPEC failed to reach the consensus on production cuts on Monday as Iraq and Iran continued to express objections. At the time of writing, the oil benchmarks - WTI and Brent ndash were trading slightly weaker, which ensured the USD/CAD stayed above 1.34. The spot dropped from the high of 1.3537 to 1.34 levels on Monday. USD/CAD Technical Levels A break above 1.3461 (5-DMA) would expose the psychological hurdle of 1.35, above which the spot may target 1.3537 (Mondayrsquos high). On the lower side, a breakdown of support at 1.34 could yield test of 1.3378 (Nov 22 low), under which the losses could be extended to 1.33 (zero figure). 03:58 BOCs Poloz: Need to be ready for the use of additional tools with rates so low BOC Governor Poloz continues to address the Q amp A session, this time speaking on the monetary policy. Uncertainty we saw during October rate decision is still present, We need to still monitor that uncertainty Release of current account data should help bring things into focus for us will have something more to say next week Current situation is fuzzy one. The more information we get between now and decision day the better Housing market is healthy in general but very hot in Toronto and Vancouver We have had a little bit of cooling off that seemed to begin before rule changes Given we start with rates at 0.5, need to be ready for possibility of additional tools Unconventional measures are not put away those tools remain in there Need to be ready for whatever the next shock may be 03:46 BOCs Poloz: BOC does not make assumptions about government policy More comments crossing the wires from BOC Governor Poloz, via Reuters, as he continues to respond during the Q amp A session. Uncertainty from Trumps victory BOC does not make assumptions about government policy We have all the ingredients of divergence in monetary policy with US If we hadn39t had oil price shock Canada and US economies will be in more similar situations Bond yields have crept up in last few weeks. That is something we have to build into calculus going forward Sales by Canadian owned foreign affiliates are about the same size as total exports every year Canada will set independent policy Release of current account data should help bring things into focus for us, will have something more to say next week 03:34 AUD/JPY: 1-hr 50-MA put to test in Asia AUD/JPY found takers for the second consecutive day below the 5-DMA, but failed to breach the hourly 50-MA level of 83.98 levels. Offered tone around JPY gathered pace The offered tone around the Japanese Yen gathered pace in Asia, which helped the AUD/JPY cross recover from the session low of 83.63 to print a high of 83.98 levels. The Japanese retail sales contracted in October, but the drop was less than expected. However, the data failed to have any impact on the Yen pairs. The cross was last seen trading around 83.90 levels. AUD/JPY Technical Levels In terms of candlestick patterns, we see a rounding top formation on the daily chart. A break above 84.14 (38.2 of 2014 high - 2016 low) would expose 85.00 (zero figure), above which a major hurdle is seen at 86.41 (Aug 2013 low). On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 81.85 (Sep 5 low) would open doors for a sell-off to 80.00 (zero figure) and 79.72 (23.6 of 2014 high - 2016 low). 03:32 BOC s Poloz: Most of bad news for resources behind Additional headlines from BOC Governor Poloz are crossing the wires, this time from his QampA session. O Canadá sempre está no negócio de recursos O Canadá passou por fase de downsizing e recursos A maioria das más notícias para recursos atrás Capacidade pode ser mais importante do que a diferença de produção A diferença de saída será sempre conceito significativo Leia as manchetes anteriores: BOC39s Poloz: Apontando o caminho para recuperação total 03:23 Arábia Saudita oferecendo ao Irã um congelamento em 3,7 mln de barris por dia - Livesquawk De acordo com Livesquawk, a Arábia Saudita é dito que está oferecendo Irã um congelamento em 3,7 mln barris por dia, o que fica aquém dos 3,97 Mln bpd O Irã pediu. O petróleo não é reativo à notícia, último em 48.82. 03:17 PBOC define USD / CNY em 6.8889 vs 6.9042 PBOC define USD / CNY em 6.8889 vs 6.9042 02:50 BOC s Poloz: Continuação da expansão do setor de serviços apontando o caminho para a recuperação total BOC Governador Poloz está atravessando os fios, observando que continuou Expansão do setor de serviços está apontando o caminho para a recuperação total. Vê crescimento sustentado ajudado pela economia do setor de serviços O processo de recuperação foi mais lento do que o desejado, mas a economia totalmente confiante voltará à produção total Essa vantagem comparativa foi fortalecida pelo declínio de C nos últimos dois anos Pode esperar que o crescimento no setor de serviços desempenhe um papel Maior papel na recuperação econômica Dado choques econômicos é compreensível há ceticismo sobre os benefícios da globalização e do comércio internacional 02:48 USD / CNY Projeção: 6.8876 - Nomura Analistas da Nomura ofereceram suas projeções para a correção USD / CNY de hoje. Nosso modelo1 projeta a correção de ser 166 pips menor do que a correção anterior (6.8876 de 6.9042) e 146 pips menor do que o ponto oficial anterior USD / CNY perto de 6.9022. USD / CNY fechar (6.8840 de 6.9022).quot 02:38 USD / JPY consolidando os máximos do rally Trump Atualmente, o USD / JPY está sendo negociado em 111.92, abaixo de -0.16 no Dia, tendo posto um diário elevado em 112.17 e baixo em 111.62. USD / JPY tem vindo a consolidar a oferta e rally Trump que levou o maior para os mais altos níveis desde fevereiro deste ano em 113,88. Os mercados estão começando a comprar de volta em tesouros de ESTADOS UNIDOS a rendimentos atrativos e assim o 10yr estava caindo de 2.41 a 2.35 e o rendimento de 2yr caiu de 1.17 a 1.12 durante a noite. Para o dia seguinte, enquanto os dados são leves para começar a semana, temos eventos chave acontecendo hoje à noite no PIB Q3 na mudança dos EUA à frente da folha de pagamento não-agrícola no final da semana e ambos serão chave no mês de dezembro e A reunião final do FOMC para o ano. Os futuros dos fundos do fed continuaram a implicar uma possibilidade 100 de uma hike da taxa em dezembro. Enquanto os mercados financeiros podem estar começando a procurar novos condutores, os políticos e os formuladores de políticas estão agora muito no banco dos condutores. Os mercados financeiros terão que se acostumar com decisões e políticas que demoram mais para serem negociadas e finalizadas em comparação com os bancos centrais, explicou analistas da ANZ, que também observou que o FOMC precisará ver quais são as políticas fiscais dos EUA antes de avaliar o impacto Sobre os perfis de taxas de juros. Perspectiva de mercados globais - A ANZ Spot está atualmente em negociação em 111,91, ea próxima resistência pode ser vista em 112,10 (Daily Open), 112,17 (Daily High), 112,21 (Hourly 20 EMA), 112,41 (Weekly Classic PP) e 112,41 (Hourly 100 SMA ). O suporte abaixo pode ser encontrado em 111,81 (Daily Classic S2), 111,62 (Daily Low), 111,34 (Yesterday39s Low), 111,32 (Hourly 200 SMA) e 111,08 (Daily Classic S3). 01:59 Vendas do Varejista do Japão Grande subiram de -3,2 para -3 anteriores em 01 de outubro de 01:53 Varejo do Japão SA (MoM): 2,5 (outubro) vs 0 01:51 Japão Retail Trade (YoY) entrou em -0,1, Acima de expectativas (-1.2) em outubro 01:50 Perspectiva de mercados globais - ANZ Os analistas em ANZ ofereceram um envoltório do mercado de sessões de noite. QuotlsquoTrump Tradesrsquo viu algum retracement no comércio claro durante a noite. As ações caíram, o dólar caiu, os tesouros firmaram e o ouro recuperou. O petróleo continuou a balançar com as manchetes da OPEP. As acções europeias foram mais duramente atingidas do que as norte-americanas, com o Euro Stoxx a descer 1, o FTSE 100 a 0,6, o DAX a 1,1 e o CAC 40 a 0,9. O Financial Times informou que oito bancos italianos podem falhar devido a uma incapacidade de refinanciar se o PM italiano perder o referendo neste fim de semana, citando autoridades não identificadas. O SampP e DJIA estavam fora 0.2-0.3.quot o USD estava no pé traseiro. A GBP foi a única moeda do G10 a ter uma queda significativa (0,6), provavelmente impulsionada pelos comentários do BoE e do Draghi. Os preços do Tesouro foram mais firmes com o ventre da curva superando. Na Europa, os movimentos foram semelhantes, com a Alemanha superando. O petróleo continuou girando devido às manchetes que cercam a OPEP, e atualmente é de cerca de 1,8. Espero que a volatilidade persista com a reunião em Viena a partir de quarta-feira. 01:39 AUD / USD: pode subir mais para o teste de 0.75 alça Atualmente, o AUD / USD está sendo negociado em 0.7488, subindo 0.16 no dia, 0,7492 e baixa a 0,7475. Goldman Sachs AUD / USD continua a recuperar e fez crescimentos diários frescos, enquanto os preços das commodities sustentam a correção da venda vendida de Trump que começou a se consolidar em todo o espectro de mercados e classes de ativos e O Aussie pode drift mais alto, de acordo com analistas em Westpac, especialmente dado o dólar de ESTADOS UNIDOS stalled. Apontamos 0.7500 hoje. O dólar dos EUA teve um aumento impressionante desde a eleição nos EUA e tem potencial para aumentar ainda mais nos próximos meses, não menos importante porque o Fed provavelmente caminhará em dezembro. Contra isso, o carvão e o minério de ferro são mais susceptíveis de sustentar suas dramáticas subidas nos próximos meses. Nós almejamos 0,73, quot - analistas em Westpac. O preço atual é 0.7489, com a resistência adiante em 0.7492 (diário elevado), 0.7496 (ontem 39s altamente), 0.7503 (diário 20 SMA), 0.7508 (Weekly clássico R1) e 0.7509 (o diário o mais elevado) Classic diário R2). O próximo suporte para o lado negativo pode ser encontrado em 0,7478 (Daily Classic R1), 0,7478 (Daily Open), 0,7478 (Semanal Alta), 0,7475 (Daily Low) e 0,7472 (Hourly 20 EMA). 01:31 Japão Taxa de desemprego do Japão está acima das expectativas (-0,6) em outubro 01:30 Taxa de desemprego do Japão está de acordo com as expectativas (3) em outubro 01:14 Estados Unidos CFTC USD NC posições líquidas: -70.4K vs anterior -13.9K 01:13 Estados Unidos CFTC Oil NC posição líquida permanece inalterada em 276.3K 01:13 Estados Unidos CFTC Gold NC posições líquidas: 167.1K vs anterior 177.7K 01:03 USD / NOK momento mudou para negativo Aumento do impulso descendente no USD / NOK trouxe o 4hr MACD para pisar na zona vermelha. Esta condição técnica certamente não seria de muita ajuda se o MACD hasnt estar sob zero por pelo menos uma semana de negociação. Isso reforça o argumento de que há espaço para depreciação adicional do USD / NOK. O sinal pode ser tomado pelos comerciantes que seguem tendências como um gatilho para liquidar posições longas como por vendedores potenciais para preparar seus compromissos curtos. 01:02 EUR / JPY ursos estão tomando controle Um padrão noturno estrela foi destaque no EUR / JPY gráfico diário. Acontece quando o preço estagnar após uma tendência ascendente e o faz sob a forma de uma vela de corpo pequeno, precedendo uma terceira vela que fecha bem abaixo do corpo da segunda vela e profundamente no primeiro corpo de velas. Este padrão de castiçal geralmente indica que a confiança na tendência bullish atual (RSI acima de 50) tem corroído e que os ursos estão tomando controle. 01:01 Padrão bearish GBP / JPY com uma nota positiva O padrão pendurado do homem de anteontem na tabela GBP / JPY, continua a indicar uma estrutura potencial em topping nos próximos dias ou semanas. O oscilador de ROC está mostrando um viés bullish enquanto deriva para o limite superior acima de 3. Mesmo que os ursos têm a borda agora baseado na interpretação do teste padrão, os chartists devem sempre ser preparados para uma continuação eventual da tendência bullish quando vem a uma suspensão O homem como sua sombra inferior é certamente visto como um desenvolvimento positivo. 01:01 Martelo invertido mantido EUR / GBP ursos acordado na noite passada Uma linha de guarda-chuva na tabela diária EUR / GBP foi confirmada por perto ontem. Um martelo invertido formado há dois dias já forneceu uma pista tentativa de que o apoio estava próximo. No entanto, não foi até que tivemos ontem fechar acima do corpo real martelos que recebemos um reforço visual que o apoio poderia ser sólido. Aqueles que shorted no fim do martelo invertido estão agora em uma posição perdedora. Quanto mais tempo o mercado paira acima do corpo invertido martelos real, o mais provável que os shorts vai cobrir. Isso poderia desencadear uma reunião de cobertura curta que poderia levar a pickers de fundo indo por muito tempo. Atualmente, o NZD / USD está sendo negociado a 0,7078, subindo 0,13 no dia, tendo registrado alta diária em 0,7081 e baixa em 0,7068. O NZD / USD tem subido de 0,7048 no final da Europa depois de um forte desempenho na Ásia ontem que cobriu o pássaro em 0,7101. Embora os dados sejam leves para começar a semana, temos eventos-chave que acontecem hoje à noite no PIB Q3 na mudança dos EUA à frente das folhas de pagamento não-agrícolas no final da semana. Analistas da Westpac explicaram que o dólar norte-americano paralisado permite que os fortes fundamentos econômicos venham à tona. Metas 0.7100 hoje. Petróleo ldquooptimisticrdquo um acordo será alcançado na cúpula OPECrsquos - ANZ NZD / USD perspectiva de 1 a 3 meses: quotThe dólar dos EUA teve um aumento impressionante desde a eleição dos EUA e tem potencial para aumentar ainda mais nos próximos meses, não menos importante porque o Fed Provavelmente caminhará em dezembro. Contra isso, a economia da NZ é forte e os preços dos produtos lácteos aumentaram. Em geral, ficamos com uma perspectiva de baixa para NZD / USD, visando sub-0.70., Quot - Westpac. Com spot trading em 0,7078, podemos ver a próxima resistência à frente em 0,7081 (Daily High), 0,7097 (Weekly Classic R1), 0,7104 (Yesterday39s High), 0,7111 (Daily Classic R2) e 0,7111 (Daily 20 SMA). Encontrado em 0,7077 (Daily Classic R1), 0,7070 (Daily Open), 0,7070 (Semanal Alta), 0,7068 (Daily Low) e 0,7067 (Hourly 20 EMA). As perspectivas de alta e baixa de juros - ANZ Os analistas do Westpac ofereceram uma perspectiva para as taxas de juros de cross e antipodean39s. QuotAUD / NZD 1 dia: Um ligeiro aumento na dinâmica sugere que 1.0600 podem ser reanalisados ​​durante o dia seguinte. AUD / NZD 1-3 meses: Superior a 1,0750 ou superior. A cruz permanece bem abaixo das estimativas de valor justo implicadas pelas taxas de juros, preços das commodities e sentimento de risco. (22 de novembro) Os rendimentos de swap da UA são de 1 dia: os 3 e 10 anos devem abrir em torno de 2,02 e 2,81, respectivamente. UA troca rendimentos 1-3 meses: O 3yr provavelmente baseado em 1,60, o RBA esperava sentar-se apertado em uma taxa de 1,5 dinheiro por algum tempo. (7 Nov) NZ swap rendimentos 1 dia: NZ 2yr swap taxas devem abrir inalterado em 2,25, o 10yr inalterado em 3,25. NZ swap yields 1-3 month: O RBNZ terminou o seu ciclo de atenuação em 10 Nov e agora permanecerá em espera por um longo tempo. Isso vai ancorar a extremidade curta um pouco (embora o 2dr OCR spread ndash uma medida de ndash esticamento foi ainda maior do que o actual 50bp durante passado on-hold períodos), com o fim longo livre para seguir offshore rendimentos. A tendência de inclinação da curva deve continuar. 00:16 USD / CAD em foco na Ásia em Poloz, mais para vir em Tóquio Atualmente, USD / CAD está negociando a 1.3405, abaixo de -0.11 no dia, tendo postado um máximo diário em 1.3424 E baixa em 1,3405. USD / CAD está testando a desvantagem no início da Ásia, após comentários anteriores da BoC39s Stephen Poloz estava cruzando os fios durante uma entrevista na TV Bloomberg antes de falar na sessão de Tóquio. O ministro do Petróleo ldquooptimisticrdquo um acordo será alcançado na cúpula da OPECrsquos - ANZ Poloz explicou que o banco central tem visto alguns bolsões de fraqueza econômica recentemente, mas afirma que era esperado. A declaração mais otimista para o CAD foi quando Poloz também disse que eles vêem a inflação volta em meta em meados de 2018 e que eles precisariam ver uma saída quotsignificant de que a perspectiva de cortar as taxas. BoC39s Poloz: Têm visto alguma fraqueza recentemente, mas que parte da expectativa de preço atual é 1.3408, com a resistência à frente em 1.3413 (Semanal Baixa), 1.3422 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.3422 (Daily Open), 1.3422 (Daily Classic S2) e 1.3424 (Máximo Diário). O próximo apoio para a desvantagem pode ser encontrado em 1.3405 (Daily Low), 1.3397 (Yesterday39s Low), 1.3391 (Daily Classic S3), 1.3320 (Weekly Classic S2) e 1.3307 (Monthly Low). Fonte de dados: FX Street Aviso: Este material é fornecido pela FXStreet como uma comunicação geral de marketing apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação contendo uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os utilizadores reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos de FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um elevado nível de risco pelo qual os utilizadores são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento realizado com base nas informações aqui apresentadas. Informativa sul Rischio: il Trading delle Opzioni Binarie e rischioso potrebbe non essere adatto a tutti gli investitori a causa dellelevato grado di rischio a cui espone il tuo capitale. Potresti perdere lintero ammontare del tuo investimento. Ti invitiamo vivamente a leggere lintera Informativa sui RischiOffice chairs Their job is to make you comfortable Getting down to work is easier when you39re comfortable and our office chairs should help keep your mind on the job. We have swivel chairs with features like built-in back support, height-adjustable seats and tilt functions that your body will love. While our visitor39s chairs have a good basic level of comfort and many have a padded layer for softness, too. TORKEL TORKEL FLINTAN FLINTAN Their job is to make you comfortable Getting down to work is easier when you39re comfortable and our office chairs should help keep your mind on the job. We have swivel chairs with features like built-in back support, height-adjustable seats and tilt functions that your body will love. While our visitor39s chairs have a good basic level of comfort and many have a padded layer for softness, too. FLINTAN FLINTAN More options available FLINTAN FLINTAN Their job is to make you comfortable Getting down to work is easier when you39re comfortable and our office chairs should help keep your mind on the job. We have swivel chairs with features like built-in back support, height-adjustable seats and tilt functions that your body will love. While our visitor39s chairs have a good basic level of comfort and many have a padded layer for softness, too. Swivel chair with armrests FLINTAN/NOMINELL Swivel chair with armrests FLINTAN/NOMINELL More options available MARKUS MARKUS More options available Swivel chair with armrests VOLMAR Swivel chair with armrests VOLMAR More options available KULLABERG KULLABERG KULLABERG KULLABERG GREGOR GREGOR More options available SKRUVSTA SKRUVSTA More options available PATRIK PATRIK FJLLBERGET FJLLBERGET STOLJAN STOLJAN More options available PATRIK PATRIK SNILLE SNILLE Make it work for you RFJLL/SPORREN RFJLL/SPORREN ALRIK ALRIK More options available LILLHJDEN LILLHJDEN More options available ROBERGET ROBERGET Swivel chair with armrests FEODOR Swivel chair with armrests FEODOR More options available SKLBERG/SPORREN SKLBERG/SPORREN More options available VGSBERG/SPORREN VGSBERG/SPORREN More options available VOLMAR VOLMAR More options available Swivel chair with headrest VOLMAR Swivel chair with headrest VOLMAR Swivel chair w headrest/armrests VOLMAR Swivel chair w headrest/armrests VOLMAR DAGOTTO DAGOTTO KOLON KOLON Pair of armrests NOMINELL Pair of armrests NOMINELL Pair of armrests VOLMAR Pair of armrests VOLMAR VOLMAR VOLMAR MOLTE MOLTE More options available NILSERIK NILSERIK More options available RFJLL/SPORREN RFJLL/SPORREN RFJLL/SPORREN RFJLL/SPORREN RFJLL/SPORREN RFJLL/SPORREN MILLBERGET MILLBERGET More options available An error occurred. 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